Bitcoin Bulls Eye $38K After Breakout: Can Momentum Sustain Amid Macro Risks?

Bitcoin, previously locked in a prolonged period of stagnation, has suddenly come alive with a significant surge, propelling its value to its highest point since May 2022.

The cryptocurrency market, known for its heightened volatility, can sometimes be stirred by a singular catalyst, and this time it's the looming possibility of the first ETF for Bitcoin based on spot valuation.

While it's essential to note that there's no official confirmation yet, market optimism is riding high on the imminent introduction of such funds potentially sparking a new bullish run.

Additionally, the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for mid-April, historically tilts the scales in favor of the bulls. The weeks ahead are poised to be pivotal in this unfolding narrative, with the actual ETF launch potentially on the horizon later this year.

Controversy Surrounding the BlackRock ETF

The grounds for this surge in market optimism hinge on the listing of the BlackRock (NYSE:BLK).

However, this listing was promptly removed, resulting in a slowdown of the previously dynamic demand movement.

All signs point to BlackRock, along with other major market players like Fidelity and Invesco, eventually coming on board. However, should the official launch be delayed, we may witness an equally rapid correction.

In this case, the ultimate decision rests with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has the authority to grant approvals for specific funds.

Notably, Paul Grewal, the Legal Director of Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), highlights that the SEC will likely succumb to the mounting pressure and green-light the product.

Adding more fuel to the fire is a recent U.S. court decision mandating the commission to reconsider the application by Grayscale, which intends to launch its own Bitcoin ETF fund

Parallels to the First Gold ETF

The current enthusiasm among buyers is undoubtedly kindled by comparisons to events nearly two decades ago, specifically, the launch of the world's first gold ETF (NYSE:GLD) in 2004.

In a historical context, gold's price surged into a multi-year bull market, ultimately concluding the rally with a significant correction when it reached slightly above $1,800 per ounce.

Gold Monthly Chart

Naturally, it's important to recognize that this analogy is rather approximate. Many distinct factors influence the valuation of different investment assets. Nevertheless, there are credible perspectives that suggest the combined impact of the influx of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the forthcoming halving event in the next year will be compelling enough to propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2024.

Technical View: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $38,000

As a result of the upward momentum, the demand side managed to break through the strong resistance area located in the price region of $33 thousand per bitcoin.

Despite the deceleration for the moment, there is no sign of willingness on the part of the sellers to make a correction, which would take place only when going below the mentioned area of $33 thousand.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

The next target for the bulls is the local supply zone located in the area of $38k, from where the very strong declines in early May 2022 came out.

In the event that the upward momentum is maintained and buyers knock out the aforementioned supply zone, then the way is opened for an attack on the round area of $48k level.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any type of asset, is evaluated from multiple points of view and is highly risky and therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remains with the investor.