Cryptocurrency Market Outlook

The global cryptocurrency market in Oct 2025 is demonstrating renewed growth momentum, underpinned by regulatory clarity, technological innovation, and robust institutional participation. Total (EPA:TTEF) market capitalization is approximately 3.19 tln USD (as of 01 Oct 2025, CoinMarketCap), with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading, accounting for over 73% of the total market cap. After reaching a peak of 3.7 tln USD at the end of 2024, the market entered 2025 with mixed momentum. Notably, Bitcoin reached a new record high at  123340 USD in Aug and is now trading in a range of 115000-120000. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are increasingly recognized as an investable asset class. Meanwhile, tokenization of real-world assets also plays a crucial role in the coming times.

Regulatory Environment

The regulatory landscape for digital assets is evolving, with clearer frameworks enhancing legitimacy, transparency, and investor protection. Multiple jurisdictions have implemented or are finalizing comprehensive digital asset regulations.

• The US: The GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act have provided a clear legal framework for the crypto market, particularly for stablecoins and Bitcoin. Key provisions include:

• • Clear definitions for digital asset classes and delineation of oversight between the SEC and CFTC.
  • Enhanced transparency standards, investor protections, and encouragement of innovation effectively legalize Bitcoin-related activities.
  • The current administration is committed to establishing the US as a “Bitcoin superpower,” supporting digital asset market development, safeguarding financial privacy, and opposing the issuance of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
  • Maintaining the US dollar as a dominant currency requires any stablecoin issue to be backed by the US dollar or short-term US Treasury to fight against de-dollarization and maintain the strength of the US economy in the global market.
  • Improved accounting standards have accelerated corporate adoption timelines.

• Also in the US: Recent regulations now allow 401(k) retirement accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets, which is expected to gradually increase mainstream adoption—though initial allocations are capped at low percentages to limit risk exposure. The US 401(k) market is exceedingly large, representing roughly $9.3 trillion of the total $13 trillion defined contribution retirement plan assets in mid-2025. Allowing crypto in 401(k)s may increase demand and investor acceptance, even if allocation remains minor, further integrating crypto into mainstream financial markets.
• The U.S. Treasury and IRS issued interim guidance on September 30, 2025, regarding the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) for digital assets, effectively exempting unrealized crypto gains from the 15% corporate tax. This development was viewed as highly favorable for Bitcoin treasury companies

• Other Jurisdictions:

Regional Regulatory Updates and Implications for Bitcoin

Use as Collateral Asset

• US Policy: From mid-2025, US regulators have permitted Bitcoin and select cryptocurrencies to be recognized as reserve assets for mortgage applications, enabling crypto holders to secure home loans without liquidating digital assets.

• • Conditions: Generally, only crypto held on US-regulated exchanges is accepted, and borrowers must comply with standard KYC/AML requirements.
  • Loan-to-Value (LTV): Typically ranges from 50% to 100%.
  • Process: Borrowers transfer Bitcoin (or approved crypto) into an escrow/custody account managed by the lender, with assets “locked” until the loan is repaid.
  • This policy further reinforces Bitcoin’s status as a recognized asset class.

Institutional Flows & ETF Expansion

• ETF Inflows: Strong inflows into spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs have provided a solid foundation for price stability. Cumulative net inflows into spot crypto ETFs have surpassed 170 bln USD since inception, with Bitcoin ETFs comprising over 87% of the total, according to CoinMarketCap.com.

Total bitcoin and ether ETF AUM:

• Altcoin ETFs: Approval of multi-asset and altcoin ETFs (e.g., ADA, SOL, XRP) is expected to broaden investment opportunities and attract new capital.
• Corporate Holdings: Corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury asset reached a significant milestone in September 2025, with publicly traded companies collectively holding over 1 million BTC worth approximately $113 billion. This represents more than 4.92% of Bitcoin's total supply, marking a dramatic expansion from just 70 companies holding Bitcoin at the start of 2025 to over 290 companies by September. Notable examples include:

• • Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to dominate the corporate Bitcoin landscape with 640,031 BTC valued at approximately $77 billion, representing over 70% of the top 13 corporate holders' combined positions.
  • Following the Strategy, the next largest corporate holders include Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) Holdings with 52,477 BTC ($6.31 billion), Twenty One Capital (XXI) with 43,514 BTC ($5.24 billion), and Metaplanet Inc. with 30,823 BTC ($3.71 billion). Notably, Metaplanet achieved its target of 30,000 BTC in October 2025, cementing its position as Asia's largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
  • Trump Media also planned to raise 2.5 bln USD for further Bitcoin acquisitions.
  • Tether is also a major player in the market after recently increasing its holdings to 86,335 BTC as part of the diversification from profit made from stablecoin activities.

Total (EPA:TTEF) Bictoin suppply held by corporate:

Institutional and ETF-driven inflows continue to underpin robust demand for cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin.

However, It is Still a Risk Asset, Not a Safe Haven

• Macro (BCBA:BMAm) Uncertainty: The market remains sensitive to global liquidity conditions, Fed policy, and geopolitical risks. Recent sharp declines have coincided with major events, such as the US-China trade war, when President Trump announced “retaliatory tariffs” on 02 Apr 2025 and postponed them on 07 Apr 2025. During this period, Bitcoin declined nearly 15%. Meanwhile, any weakening in the coming US labor data could add further concern over the stagflation in the US economy and could pressure the cryptocurrency market.
• High Correlation with Equities: According to Exness Investment Bank calculations, over the past five years, BTCUSD has exhibited a high correlation (above 0.9) with major equity indices (US30, US500, USTEC, DE30). Over the past six months, the highest correlations have been with USTEC (0.90) and US500 (0.87).

Short-Term Volatility & Supply Dynamics

• Token Unlocks & Risk-Off Sentiment: Large token unlocks and “risk-off” sentiment can trigger volatility, though the long-term trend remains constructive.
• Volatility: Bitcoin remains among the most volatile asset classes. With a limited supply, price is highly sensitive to market flows. EIB data shows the standard deviation of weekly BTCUSD returns over the past five years is 7.7%, with higher volatility (15% and 25%) observed in equity indices.

Outlook for 2026

• Regulatory Developments: Ongoing regulatory progress remains a key driver for market direction and investor confidence. Increased government support is enhancing Bitcoin’s legitimacy and investor protections, further establishing it as a credible investment channel.
• Global Economic Conditions: Economic fundamentals will significantly influence capital flows into Bitcoin as a risk asset, particularly in the US. Current indicators support continued US economic growth, a resilient Job Market, and minimal transitory Inflation impacts from tariffs. Elevated tariffs may be revised following negotiations, potentially benefiting the US economy.
• Price Forecasts:

• • Major banks, including Citi and JPMorgan, forecast Bitcoin could reach between $165,000 and $300,000 in 2026, driven by ETF flows, institutional adoption, and Fed rate policy.
  • The average 2026 Ethereum institutional target is $8,500, with projections from $4,500 (Citi) up to $11,000 (DigitalCoinPrice), reflecting bullish sentiment on DeFi and technology upgrades.
  • BlackRock and other large asset managers are shifting allocations from Bitcoin to Ethereum, viewing ETH as the foundation for DeFi and digital assets.
  • ETF and corporate demand are set to significantly outpace new Bitcoin supply, creating a bullish supply shock scenario.
  • Regulatory clarity and treasury adoption by over 290 corporations support the institutional bull thesis, but due to macro policy shifts, cycle peaks could be delayed to mid-2026.