By Karen Lema
MANILA, April 16 (Reuters) - The daughter of Philippine
leader Rodrigo Duterte says there's no chance she'll run for the
presidency next year. Her father says the presidency is no job
for a woman.
But few are convinced by either of them as campaigns grow to
back Sara Duterte-Carpio, 42, to succeed the autocratic and
capricious president whose war on drugs killed thousands and
whose embrace of China has convulsed historic ties with
Washington.
"It is the clamour of the people that will make her run,"
said Mar Masanguid, who led the movement behind the hugely
popular 76-year-old Duterte's last minute presidential bid in
2016 and has now founded a group to back Sara Duterte.
Sara Duterte's image is as down-to-earth as that of her
father in a country where tough plays well: she once punched a
court official who challenged her; she rides big motorbikes; her
children are nicknamed Sharkie, Stingray and Stonefish.
Opinion polls show her far ahead of other potential
candidates for the 2022 election when Duterte must step down
after one six-year term.
But Sara Duterte told Reuters she had thought carefully and
decided not to try to extend the political dynasty to the
presidency after succeeding her father as mayor of the southern
city of Davao.
"I made a chart where I listed the whys and why nots before
I decided that I am not going to run," she told Reuters, adding
that she hadn't even told her father the reason.
That hasn't stopped the campaigns.
PICTURE EVERYWHERE
Posters, banners, stickers, t-shirts, calendars bearing the
younger Duterte's image with the words "Run, Sara, Run" have
popped up across the archipelago of 108 million people. Her
supporters say she has nothing to do with the campaigns.
"Run, Sara, Run" calls have increased among the millions of
Filipinos abroad, a key support base of Duterte.
In Cebu City, more than 500 motorcycles joined a motorcade
for the "Sara Duterte for President Movement" on March 28 to
convince the older Duterte to get her to run.
"I thank all of them for their trust and confidence," Sara
Duterte said. "Not everyone wants to be president."
Ramon Casiple, a political analyst and vice president of
consulting and research firm Novo Trends PH, said the signs
still pointed to a likely run by Sara Duterte that would mirror
the way her father's last minute bid had energised his 2016
campaign.
"You are talking about the same set of tactics," Casiple
said.
Like her father, Sara Duterte trained as a lawyer before
joining politics. In 2010, she became mayor of Davao, a city of
more than 1.6 million people 1,000 km (600 miles) from Manila.
Though she has never held national office, polls suggest she
would beat potential candidates such as boxing superstar Manny
Pacquiao and the namesake son of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
A victory could help protect her father against potential
legal challenges in a country where losing the immunity of
office can often open the way to the settling of political
vendettas, political analysts said.
Duterte also faces possible international action over his
bloody war on drugs.
"No one can protect Duterte better than her," said Carlos
Conde, Philippines researcher for the New York-based Human
Rights Watch.
LOYAL TO FATHER, QUESTIONS OVER POLICIES
Sara Duterte, like her father, has a reputation for being
tough. She has openly traded barbs with the president, but few
doubt her loyalty.
During her confirmation as a reserve army colonel last year,
a senator asked her why the president had repeatedly said he was
afraid of her.
"That is just in his mind," said Sara Duterte, in a crew cut
and formal military uniform. "I have always supported him."
Continuity would also be welcomed by the bureaucrats and
tycoons who prospered under Duterte's rule, said Earl Parreno,
author of a biography of Duterte titled "Beyond Will & Power."
Whether Sara Duterte would keep to her father's policies is
another question.
Sara Duterte showed her independence some three years ago
when she united political factions to oust one of the
president's allies as lower house speaker.
She has not been so outspoken on the bloody drugs war that
has been a centrepiece of Duterte's administration, but has said
prevention and rehabilitation should be part of drug policy,
while adding "law enforcement should be quick to the draw."
She has also not been as close to China as her father -
whose close ties to Beijing rattled the traditional alliance
with the United States and a domestic security establishment
with close U.S. ties.
In 2020, Sara Duterte visited the United States for State
Department sponsored leadership training.
"We should be a bystander in the China vs US issue," she
told Reuters.
"We should collect friends outside of the two, so that if
one turns their back on us, we still have 9. And if both forget
about us, we still have 8. And if 8 leave us, we should stand
alone."
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Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's daughter leads potential
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(Editing by Matthew Tostevin and Michael Perry)