Earnings call transcript: Steel Dynamics Q3 2024 earnings miss expectations

Published 01/23/2025, 08:30 PM

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a miss on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $1.36, below the anticipated $1.41, and revenue of $3.9 billion, falling short of the $4.02 billion forecast. Following the announcement, the stock saw a 1.44% decline in regular trading, closing at $122.89, but showed a slight recovery in premarket trading.

Key Takeaways

  • Steel Dynamics missed its EPS and revenue forecasts for Q3 2024.
  • The company maintains strong liquidity with $3.1 billion available.
  • New product innovations and projects are underway, including a biocarbon initiative.
  • The stock experienced a minor recovery in premarket trading despite a post-earnings decline.
  • Market sentiment remains cautious amid the earnings miss.

Company Performance

Steel Dynamics reported a net income of $318 million, or $2.05 per diluted share, for Q3 2024. This marks a decline from the previous quarter, attributed to lower realized flat-rolled steel pricing. Despite the earnings miss, the company highlights its robust liquidity and ongoing innovations in product offerings and operational efficiencies.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $3.9 billion, below the forecast of $4.02 billion.
  • Earnings per share: $1.36, missing the forecast of $1.41.
  • Operating income: $395 million, a 29% decrease from the previous quarter.
  • Cash from operations: $760 million year-to-date.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Steel Dynamics reported an EPS of $1.36, missing the forecast of $1.41 by approximately 3.5%. Revenue also fell short, coming in at $3.9 billion compared to the expected $4.02 billion, reflecting a challenging market environment.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Steel Dynamics' stock fell by 1.44% in regular trading but showed a slight recovery in premarket trading, up 0.09% to $123. This reflects a cautious investor sentiment as the stock navigates the lower end of its 52-week range.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Steel Dynamics remains optimistic about its aluminum investments, expecting them to become EBITDA positive in the second half of 2025. The company projects significant capital investments of $700-800 million in 2025, with anticipated growth in the automotive and construction sectors.

Executive Commentary

CEO Mark Millett emphasized the company's performance-driven culture and diversified business model, stating, "Our performance-driven, employee-centric culture, in combination with a proven highly diversified value-added business model, drives superior through-cycle financial metrics." CFO Theresa Wagler added optimism about future investments, noting, "We do expect those investments to be EBITDA positive in the second half of twenty twenty-five, which is pretty extraordinary."

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of trade cases against galvanized steel imports and operational improvements at the Sinton mill. The company addressed potential dividend increases and explored future investment opportunities.

Risks and Challenges

  • Fluctuations in steel pricing and demand could impact future earnings.
  • Ongoing trade disputes and import tariffs may affect market dynamics.
  • Supply chain disruptions could pose operational challenges.
  • Macroeconomic pressures, including inflation and interest rate changes, may influence profitability.
  • Competition within the steel and metals industry remains intense.

Full transcript - Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) Q3 2024:

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After management's prepared remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Please be advised that this call is being recorded today, October 17, 2024, and your participation implies consent to a recording of this call. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations, Steel Dynamics: Thank you, Kelly. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics' Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually.

Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of estimates and assumptions in connection with our anticipated project returns and our steel, metals recycling and fabrication businesses, as well as to general business and economic conditions. Examples of these are described in the related press release, as well as in our annually filed SEC Form 10 ks under the headings Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors found on the Internet at www.sec.gov, and if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10 Q. You'll also find any referenced non GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly compared GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results.

And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our Q3 'twenty four earnings call. As you have read and seemingly many have concluded, our teams executed well through the quarter, achieving another solid financial and operational performance. Most gratifying to us, to me, in particular, was achieving another great quarter for safety.

The ramp ups of our 4 new value add flat brill steel coating lines have been an unqualified success with the expectation of full earnings benefit in 2025. These lines represent an additional 1,100,000 tons of higher margin product diversification for us. In Texas, despite a couple of challenges early in the quarter, the team gained considerable momentum, running at a 72% utilization rate of scheduled run time in September. We had extended periods in excess of 90% and were achieved during that quarter And I think it proves the mill's ultimate capability. Fuel shipments were 3,200,000 tons.

3rd quarter revenues, dollars 4,300,000,000 adjusted EBITDA was $557,000,000 and cash flow from operations, dollars 760,000,000 dollars As I stated, we had a great quarter in terms of safety. Historically, the summer months can be challenging period, but the teams reversed that trend this year with an excellent performance. Not only was that trend reversed, but both our total recordable incident rate and lost time rates were the lowest in our history. Our employee dedication to our Take Controller safety program is extraordinary. Our core safety teams visited 30 facilities in the 3rd quarter alone, which is I think a clear testament to their commitment to keep each other safe.

We continue to build a world class safety culture and the positive results have been clearly demonstrated. 84% of our locations in the 3rd quarter did not have a recordable injury. That's 104 locations out of our 124, and 94% of them did not have a lost time incident. I'm continually inspired by the commitment of our team members have for one another. They really truly consider themselves family and challenge the status quo every day to do better in every way.

That's why we are so focused on providing the very best for their health, their safety and their welfare. That said, there's still a lot of work to do as we strive toward a zero incident environment. But with that, I will pause for Teresa first and then Barry to add color for the quarter.

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. We really do appreciate you taking the time to be on the call with us this morning, and I want to add my thanks to our teams for a really solid performance this quarter. As Mark suggested, our Q3 2024 net income was 3 $18,000,000 or $2.05 per diluted share with adjusted EBITDA of $557,000,000 3rd quarter 2024 revenue of $4,300,000,000 was below sequential second quarter results due to lower realized flat rolled steel pricing tied to lagging contractual volume. Our 3rd quarter operating income of $395,000,000 was 29% lower than sequential second quarter results driven by steel metal spread contraction as average realized pricing declined more than scrap raw material costs in the quarter.

Our steel operations generated operating income of $305,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, lower than sequentially lower than sequential results due to average realized pricing declining $79 to $10.59 per tonne, while total shipments were steady as increased flat rolled volume offset lower structural and SPQ volume. For those of you that track our individual flat rolled shipments quarter by quarter, in the Q3 hot rolled shipments were 942,000 tons, cold rolled shipments were 118,000 tons and coated shipments were 1,335,000 tons. For Metals Recycling, operating income was $12,000,000 lower than sequential second quarter results due to lower realized pricing and volume. In addition, we had an unrealized non cash copper hedging loss of $10,000,000 in September. We're the largest non we're the largest North American metals recycler processing and consuming ferrous scrap and non ferrous aluminum, copper and other metals.

And we're growing in support of our increased steel and planned aluminum production investments through new and expanded relationships and through the use of innovative new separation technologies. I'm really proud of the team. They're also reducing operating costs very effectively. Our steel fabrication team achieved strong operating income of $166,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, lower than 2nd quarter results as a 5% decrease in realized pricing offset steady shipments. Order activity in the Q3 was the strongest we've seen this year, supporting our Joyce and Deck backlog extending through the Q1 of 2025.

As interest rates decline and public funding begins to be distributed post election and into 2025, we expect to see increased fixed asset investment and corresponding demand drivers for steel and steel fabrication products next year. Regarding our aluminum investments, as a reminder, as we construct the aluminum facilities, non capitalizable expenses are required to flow through SG and A until start up. As a result, our SG and A will be higher until we start operations in 2025. You have visibility to this amount provided in our supplemental data schedule. For the Q3, it was $24,000,000 We have expectations for aluminum investments to be EBITDA positive in the second half of twenty twenty five and plan to operate the rolling mill at approximately 75 percent of its capacity in 2026.

Mark is going to provide more details related to our ramp and product mix expectations later on the call as well as define our differentiated cost expectations. The construction of the rolling mill and the San Luis Potosi recycled slab center is going extremely well. Approximately $1,900,000,000 has already been invested through September of 2024 with expectations of funding between $350,000,000 to $400,000,000 in the 4th quarter and the remainder then to be spent in the first half of twenty twenty five. Our cash generation continues to be strong based on our differentiated circular business model and highly variable cost structure. During the Q3 of 2024, we generated cash from operations of $760,000,000 We ended the quarter with strong liquidity of $3,100,000,000 comprised of cash and short term investments of $1,900,000,000 and our fully available unsecured revolver of 1,200,000,000 dollars For the Q4 of 2024, we believe capital investments will be in the range of $500,000,000 to $550,000,000 Preliminarily, we believe 2025 capital investments will be in the range of $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 We repurchased $970,000,000 of our common stock year to date 2024 representing 4.5% of our outstanding shares.

And as of September 30, we have $486,000,000 remaining available for share repurchases. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high return strategic growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that's complemented with a variable share repurchase program, while we remain dedicated to preserving our investment grade credit designation. Our track record is proven achieving 5 year after tax return on invested capital of 24% during a period of transformational growth and strong shareholder returns. Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last 5 years from an annual average of $540,000,000 to $2,900,000,000 excluding our large strategic Centen and Aluminum Investments. In July, we successfully issued $600,000,000 of investment grade notes with a 10 year tenure in anticipation of repaying $400,000,000 of our notes that are due this December.

Before I conclude, I want to thank the decarbonization and biocarbon teams. I'm proud of them and excited about the recent announcement concerning our new certified science based greenhouse gas emissions intensity targets for our steel mills, which are aligned with the 1.5 degrees Celsius scenario set forth in the Paris agreement. In fact, our steel mills are already well ahead of that curve. We recently set both a 2,050 emissions intensity target, which is aligned with the International Energy Agency's net 0 by 2,050 industry targets and an interim 2,030 target, which represents a 15% reduction in our greenhouse gas intensity. These targets were established using the Global Steel Climate Council's Steel Climate Standard of which we are a founding member.

The biocarbon project is also going incredibly well with expectations for a Q1 2025 start. Sustainability is a significant part of our long term value creation strategy and we're dedicated to our people, our communities and our environment. We're committed to operating our business with the highest integrity. We uniquely have and we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference. And we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference.

Thank you. Barry?

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: Sorry, microphone. Thank you, Theresa. Our steel fabrication operations performed well in the Q3, achieving historically strong earnings and steady volume in the quarter. Our steel fabrication order backlog remains at a healthy level, extending through the Q1 of 2025. We remain optimistic as it relates to demand for the steel joists and deck markets over the next number of years based on a moderating interest rate environment, continued manufacturing on shoring and public funding for infrastructure and other fixed asset investment programs.

The uplift from this macro environment could be considerable for this platform as well as our steel operations. Our steel fabrication platform also provides meaningful volume support for our steel operations, which allows us to constantly operate at a higher through cycle utilization rate. It also mitigates the financial risk of lower steel prices. The metals recycling team did a good job navigating a challenging market environment in the 3rd quarter. There are a number of domestic steel outages, which decreased fair scrap demand coupled with pricing volatility.

Fair scrap prices have stabilized and we believe should remain relatively stable through the rest of the year subject to seasonal moves. The North American geographic footprint of our metals recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel mills and for our scrap generating customers. Our Mexican recycling locations competitively advantage our Columbus (WA:CLC) and Sinton raw material positions. They also strategically support increased procurement of aluminum scrap for our future flat rolled aluminum operations. Our metals recycling team is partnering even more closely with both steel and aluminum teams to expand scrap separation capabilities through process and technology solutions.

This helps mitigate potential prime ferrous scrap supply issues in the future. It also provides us with a significant advantage to increase the recycled content in our aluminum flat roll products and increase our earnings opportunities. The steel team also had a solid quarter achieving steady shipments of 3,200,000 tons. During the Q3 of 2024, the domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 78%, while our steel mills operated at a rate of 86%, excluding our Syndon operation. We consistently operate at higher utilization rates due to our value added steel product diversification, our differentiated customer supply chain solutions and the support of our internal manufacturing business.

The higher through cycle utilization of our steel mills is one of our key competitive advantages, supporting our strong and growing cash generation capability and best in class financial metrics. Our realized average flat rolled steel price declined in the quarter due to contract lags, but prices stabilized and improved in the quarter. Positively, value added flat roll steel pricing spreads remained resilient, supporting our earnings as we are the largest producer of these products in North America and growing. Our activity is solid heading into the Q4 with normal seasonal trends expected. In general, our flat rolled steel mills lead times are actually at levels higher than we've seen over the last 6 months.

Underlying steel demand remains steady, but a surge in steel imports put pressure on the supply dynamics in certain product areas, specifically for coated flat rolled steel up products. In response, we levied a trade case and we expect to get a preliminary ruling from the ITC (NSE:ITC) in a few weeks. Our Sinton, Texas flat roll steel mill team successfully completed needed changes early in the quarter to access 100% of the mill's melt capacity. The team experienced some difficulty ramping back up after the outage. However, the reliability of the mill improved dramatically in September, and the company believes Sinton's product utilization rate will increase to around 75% for the Q4 of 2024.

Also, the additional 2 new value added coating lines were successfully commissioned and have commenced operations, improving the mill's value add product mix and through cycle earning capability. Regarding the steel mill market environment, North American automotive production estimates for 2024 were recently revised to stable production over the next several years. Automotive dealer inventories also continue to remain below historical norms. Non residential construction remains stable with slowdowns across some industries. However, we believe moderating interest rates will unlock pent up project work and create new opportunities in 2025.

Additionally, onshoring and infrastructure spending should provide further support to fixed asset investment and related construction oriented products. As for the energy market, the solar industry continues to grow and be a meaningful part for both our flat roll products and structural sections. Oil and gas also remain steady. Looking forward, we are optimistic regarding steel demand and pricing dynamics as we end 2024 and get ready to enter 2025. With that, I'll send it back to Mark.

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Super. Thanks, Theresa. Thank you, Barry. What's more than evident that our performance driven employee centric culture in combination with a proven highly diversified value added business model drives superior through cycle financial metrics. Our consistently strong operating and financial performance continues to support our cash generation and growth investment strategies, allowing a balanced cash allocation strategy that has consistently delivered best in class shareholder returns.

For instance, our investment strategy achieved a 3 year return on invested capital of 32% from 2021 through 2023 compared to only 12% for the S and P 500. And our disciplined high return investment approach continues. As I said, the 4 value added flat roll steel coating lines are increasing volume and performing very well from a quality perspective. These types of high return investments are key to our value added product and supply chain differentiation strategies. As I mentioned also, Cintan continues to improve its operational reliability with expectations for strong production capability in 2025.

Our recent aluminum growth strategy is especially compelling. The market environment in aluminum is not unlike the steel industry was when we started SDI 30 plus years ago. It has older assets, heavy legacy costs. A lot of the facilities are inefficient and high cost. And they've had the industry in general has had difficulty in earning the cost of capital and hence there's been little investment in facilities and new technologies in recent years.

But unlike our steel entry, the one huge positive is that the there's a significant deficit in aluminum, just in North America in general, And that deficit is expected to grow considerably. There's a clear business alignment, leverage our core competencies, core competency of construction and operational know how. And one only has to look at the drone video on our website to see the extraordinary progress the team has made constructing the new mills. It also will leverage our performance driven culture, driving higher efficiency and lower cost operations. It also lever Omni's recycling footprint.

As Teresa suggested, we're the largest North American aluminum scrap recycler and we also are developing some in house new technologies to separate the 5000 and 6000 series alloys. It's a very, very cost effective and a high return growth opportunity for us. Construction of the expansive rolling mill in Columbus, Mississippi, as I said, is proceeding at an extraordinary pace. And I believe the aluminum industry is now recognizing that we truly will be a force to be reckoned with. The future customer base across all sectors is excited to have a new market entrant that is known to be innovative, customer centric and responsive to their needs.

Commercial arrangements are being put in place to match an order book to our ramp up needs in 2025. Responses from existing and new customers across the markets remains incredible as they thirst for new supply. As in Sinton, we're developing an on-site industrial plant to locate aluminum processing and consuming facilities. Two arrangements are currently being negotiated that will create approximately 100,000 tons of annual ton of processing capability per year. And as our project has become a visible reality and our reputation permeates the aluminum industry, aluminum professionals have been knocking at our door and we've been building on a phenomenal team with an in-depth knowledge of aluminum operations, commercial markets, process technology and customer service.

For those that may not have heard in our last call, the scope of the facility is a state of the art 650,000 metric tonnealuminum flat road facility located in Columbus, Mississippi. We'll have an optimized mix of 300,000 tons of can stock, 230,000 tons of auto and 130,000 tons of industrial and construction products when we're up fully running. The actual site in Columbus, Mississippi has a melt cast and a lab capacity of 600,000 metric tons, and it's going to be supported by 2 satellite recycled aluminum slab casting centers located in UBC Scrantbridge regions. We expanded the project scope to include, as I said, additional scrap processing and segregation technologies to maximize aluminum recycle content. These in house developed technologies are currently operating successfully separating the 56,000 series alloys on a commercial basis every day.

The team plans to begin production of slabs in San Luis Potosi, Mexico in the Q1 of 2025. We will commission the Columbus Cast House in the Q1 of 2025, downstream lines in the Q2 with commercial shipments in mid-twenty 25, and that is absolutely on schedule. In 2025, we plan to begin production with a product mix weighted to industrial and construction products, as we qualify our can sheet in 2025 and order products into 2026. We anticipate production to grow to 50% of our annual rate by the end of 2025 and expect 75% capacity in 2026. The project is expected to add 650 to 700,000,000 of through cycle annual EBITDA and we should generate approximately $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 through the recycling platform in addition to that.

Although this computes to a higher EBITDA per ton than the industry has experienced in the past, we're confident in that projection. And the most significant savings are in 4 key areas: labor, recycled content, yield and logistics. For labor, we should have a reduced workforce of perhaps 700 to 7 50 people versus perhaps 1200 or more in a conventional facility of this size. We'll have optimized plant layout and material flow. We'll have a centralized automated storage system, so there'll be no touch from slab to truck.

And our proven performance based incentive driven culture will drive high productivity, high efficiency and low costs. We will have no legacy costs. So for those who doubt the impact, I would just ask you to look at what our teams have done throughout our steel operations over the years. Recycled content, again, we will lever our metals recycling platform to drive higher recycle content. We have the largest non ferrous operations, recycling operations as has already been stated.

And we also have a secondary aluminum facility that has been operating for many years that will be additive. We're locating satellite facilities close to the UBC rich areas to the West and in Mexico, and again, leverage the sorting technologies. The yield will be improved. We do believe it's going to be a new facility, state of the art equipment and technologies. The scalping technology is absolutely state of the art and will minimize material removal.

And we're actually processing through the facility supersized coils that produce less heads, less tails, less line stops, all adding to lower yield losses. And logistics, again, locating slab centers close to the UBC rich areas will be a huge benefit as well. So the excitement within our company and particularly at the ADI sites continues to grow as our teams recognize their ability to help revolutionize the U. S. Aluminum industry as they did in steel.

We're impassioned by our current and future growth plans as they will continue to drive the high return growth momentum we have consistently demonstrated over the years. The earnings growth of these new projects is compelling. The capital spending for Cintun, the 4 value add lines and the aluminum dynamics is approximately 85% complete with an estimated collective future through cycle annual EBITDA contribution of over $1,400,000,000 As a prominent institutional portfolio manager recently pointed out to us, Steel Dynamics has grown to an incredibly resilient cash generating business driven by the best teams in the world. He said in the last 5 years, you've invested 1,000,000,000 of dollars in organic strategic growth. You've earned return on invested capital at 24% compared to the S and P 500 at only 12%.

You've increased your cash dividend over 90%. You repurchased over 30% of your outstanding shares, all the while maintaining best in class investment grade credit metrics. You said it's better than a textbook capital allocation lesson. And obviously, somewhat biased, I agree. And I'm excited as investors recognize the power and consistency of our through cycle cash generation combined with our consistent and high return capital allocation strategy.

And it's our belief that the steel industry has undergone a paradigm shift in recent years, a shift that will further support our earnings profile. There's a pervasive sense of mercantilism, which will provide a level playing field through continued and appropriate trade relief. You have COVID driven supply chain dislocations, which have accelerated reassuring of manufacturing. Decarbonization should materially steepen the global cost curve, providing SDI a huge competitive advantage to gain market share and increase metal spreads as our mills have some of the lowest carbon footprints in the world. AI and cloud computing should support non residential construction through data center build out.

And there will be growing fixed asset investment driven by the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act and other public monies. In turn, with the interest rates moderating, demand will be strong, we do believe, going into and through 2025. So in closing, we've been blessed with good fortune and our people are our foundation. I thank each of them for their passion and their dedication. We're committed to them and I remind those listening today that your safety for yourselves, your families and each other is our highest priority.

Our culture and business model continue to differentiate our performance leading to best in class financial metrics. We're an integrated metals business, providing enhanced lower carbon supply chain solutions to our customers, in turn, mitigating volatility in our cash flow generation and providing enhanced shareholder returns and value to all participants. We truly look forward to creating new opportunities for everyone today, tomorrow and in the years ahead. So with that said, we will open up the call to our questions.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Thank Your first question is coming from Martin Engler with Seaport Research Partners. Please post your question. Your line is live.

Martin Engler, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Hello. Good morning, everyone. You briefly touched on this in the prepared remarks, but for the greenfield aluminum project, are there any other key personnel additions that are still needed? And could you just more broadly touch on the general labor market and how you found the process of filling the needs there?

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Certainly. I think the there are no key folks or talent needed from a skill set or experience. We are pretty well built out, but we will always, always talk to anyone who wants to join us. The management team, I think, is absolutely solid. It's a blend, a combination of seasoned aluminum folks, managers, leaders, alongside our STI proven leaders.

And so you'll get the blend of aluminum experience and knowledge base with the cultural performance driven sort of passion that we have within Steel Dynamics. So I'm incredibly, incredibly impressed by the team. It's actually a much better location and finding talent is not an easy thing nowadays, but compared to the challenges that we experienced in Cintam, I think it's a much, much better location. Fortunately, we have one of our large flat road steel facilities right across the road. That's allowing again a transfer of people at all levels and they can transfer over without moving their families and dislocating their lives.

And so that is a huge benefit for us as well. So no, we're excited by the team there.

Martin Engler, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Excellent. If I could one last one in steel fabrication with more recent sales that you've had that have been added into the backlog over the past month or 2, are you seeing any pockets of pricing strength relative to where you had been?

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: Martin, I would suggest that, heading into the Q4, we're going to see that normal seasonality, that you typically see in anything that's tied to construction. But as we look at 2025, we definitely think that there's opportunity for not just price support, but price appreciation as we've talked about interest rate changes and additional demand coming from public funding, etcetera. So we're feeling really good with the steady aspect of what we've seen in the last 6 to 9 months. And now we'll just get through the Q4 seasonality and then head towards what we think is going to be a really robust 2025.

Martin Engler, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Okay. Appreciate that. Congratulations on results. Thank you.

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Thank you.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is coming from Katya Jantek with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed your question. Your line is live. Hi. Thank you for taking my question.

Right now, 80% of your business is contractually based. Does that change with further Sinton ramp up? Or should we continue to see about 80% contractual?

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: Got you. This is Barry Schneider. Contractual relationships are a big part of our value added supply chain solutions. So as we've increased our paint lines and our coating lines, it keeps that contract concentration about in that 70% to 80% range. We anticipated this growth with our new lines.

So I would see us being in the same kind of market, perhaps a little bit less in the future once we get the established customer bases and work out these supply chains in each region. Thank you.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Okay. And maybe

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: just Just to clarify, I think you recognize it, but the 80% contractual is on the flat roll side of our business. We obviously have a whole bunch of other stuff being a very, very diversified provider, which is more in the kind of the smart spot day to day.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Okay. Maybe just one quick one. Barry, I think you mentioned that Sinton had a bit of a challenge starting up after maintenance, if I'm not mistaken. What was the issue there?

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: I just whenever we work with high voltage systems, you have kind of a normal making sure everything's safe as you ramp up. So having the team, the outage was about 4 days. And it was just a little bit slow to get back up to regular running rates. It's not unheard of in our industry. It was just worth noting because we did so much work.

The team was really, really resolved some of those high power problems we've had from the beginning. And we safely were able to do that. So all in all, I consider it a good outage. The team did very well, but it wasn't like turning a light on and off. It's just a little bit more complicated with that high voltage.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Perfect. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Tristan Gresser with BNP Pariboxane. Please proceed with your question. Your line is live.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. First one is just on the increase in spreads and metal spread for your long portfolio. Where did you see more strength?

And maybe if you can discuss a little bit the differentiated outlook for, I don't know, your structural or shape or ray or whatever drove that strength that would be appreciated to get your perspective on your own product business?

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: This is Barry. The scrap that we're able to move to our mills from the metals recycling platform is really beneficial because we find the best value and the timeliness of our supply chain allows us to really optimize that. So having the right material at the right time is essential for that business to really to get the value from it. As we look specifically at long products, our structural and heavy section mill in Columbia City is not just a heavy section mill, it's also railroad, the largest railroad producer in the country. So we have a nice balance of where we tend to move our products.

So as the markets tend to change over time, we're always able to optimize into the right product mix for the opportunity and make sure that we keep our regular customers invested and they understand what we're doing. So having that diversification of product across all of our business is essential when we're looking at how we're moderating quarter to quarter with the natural flow of business. So long products remains very resilient. We're excited about the opportunities that we see coming, particularly with the investment and reshoring opportunities.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: All right. That's helpful. And maybe a follow-up just on the updated galvanized trade case you mentioned and the potential impact of that. I understand Vietnam being part of the investigation, but I think there have been a push to include certain countries like Canada and also Mexico. And given your exposure to Mexico, can you explain a little bit the rationale behind including those countries in the investigation?

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: Yes, sir. There was actually 10 countries involved in the investigation. And each of those countries, there was very demonstrative increases in the actual tons that have surged through those various countries into American markets. And the necessity of including Canada and Mexico was because of the volume of tons that are coming through those countries. The USMCA is a great treaty that we all enjoy.

We do good business based on that. In that agreement, there is provisions to do just what we did, which is engage the ITC for anti dumping and countervailing duties cases. The numbers are staggering. And in many cases, these tons are not melted or poured in those countries, but they're flowing from some of the other countries listed. So as there's problems in Asia, that puts pressure on that part of the world and they all want to flow to our shores.

So this mechanism is expensive, it's lengthy, but it's necessary to make sure that the competitive markets that we have in our United States are truly fair trade. So I think the process will render out what the appropriate duties are in each country. And if there truly was less damage for some of those countries, the final tariff amounts will reflect that. So it is something that was absolutely necessary. And as we watch, we don't ask for handouts or protection.

We just ask for a fair field to play the game on. And this is all part of that process.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: All right. Thank you very much.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is coming from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). Please post your question. Your line is live.

Carlos De Alba, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Yes. Thank you very much. Maybe continuing with the conversation on the antidumping case, somewhat related, the spread between galvanizing steel and coral coil has been depressed. Your low levels probably not economical. If the anti dumping investigation doesn't go your way or even if you don't see a big improvement, if it does, what is Steel Dynamics as a leader in this sector prepared to do to maybe enhance those spreads?

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: Carlos, this is Barry again. We do anticipate great success with these trade cases, especially with certain of these countries that were the most egregious offenders. But we routinely evaluate how we move our flat roll products through our process lines. So we routinely move hot roll all the way through the process into galvanized and painted. We make those decisions about where the margins are.

So we've been having very good success in dealing with these pressures over the last 12 months. And you can see from our earnings results that we're finding a solution to the problem. It has to do with we have so much diversity in our product mix that we respond to where we can go and be safe. So, I believe the ITC will come back favorable, particularly with some of the more egregious offenders. And that does create an opportunity for us to co balance into a more product mix that is more perhaps friendly to those times.

Carlos De Alba, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thanks, Larry. If I may squeeze another one.

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: If I could just add, you've heard us say before, we don't manage to hope nor do we manage and make strategic decisions based on we think trade or policy of any nature is going to go one way or the other. You have to take control of your own destiny. And I think the teams year over year do an absolutely phenomenal job further diversifying our product mix. I think I don't know what the recent number is, 65%, 70% of our flat row product mix, 65% is value add. And when we say value add, I'm talking about really value add.

When you get into pre paint and you get into the coating developments that the teams have achieved. And most recently, they've got into this digital print stuff that literally is absolutely phenomenal, wood grains for the garage door folks and architectural. You just have to have innovation and creativity continuing to drive up the product mix. So no matter what happens, we will succeed in no matter where the trade goes, to be honest.

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: And the thing that Mark and Barry talked about, but without saying the exact words, it's the supply chain differentiation that we have with all the products that you just spoke about. And so that's the key for us.

Carlos De Alba, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: All right. Thanks. And just maybe if I may squeeze another one on the steel fabrication business. Any further details on pricing? I think Barry, maybe I missed this, but I think Barry talked about stable pricing from current levels or from what you saw in the Q3.

But any further color there or volumes, how do you expect that going forward?

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: Yes, Carlos, thanks for the question. But again, we're pretty consistent. We won't talk about pricing and commercial things as it relates to that. The commercial team would they would be outside my door and maybe ready to do bad things. So we can't do that.

But from a volume perspective, we do expect regular seasonality here in the Q4 as it relates to the construction related businesses, which steel fabrication is 1. But we do expect to see much stronger volumes next year, which could support should support pricing as well.

Carlos De Alba, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thanks, Theresa.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is coming from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please pose your question. Your line

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: live. Fantastic. Thank you, operator, and good morning, Mark, Truson, Barry. Nice to hear from you both and thanks for the update today. Barry, maybe I think this question would be best directed to you.

Could you just walk us through the path from 72% utilization at Cintin in September to your optimal utilization? What is that optimal fully ramped utilization? And what are the remaining bottlenecks and steps to resolve that? And if possible, timeline to when you hit that number? Thanks.

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: Yes, Lawson. I'll try to articulate why we have confidence in what the Sytten team is doing. And the first major thing is reducing the unplanned downtime. So when things happen, as the teams not only develops themselves as teammates, but also as competency develops, they're able to address issues that they occur. So we've been making significant strides at reducing the unplanned downtime.

Necessary to make that happen is improving the reliability of the equipment in the plant. As you may know, our flat rolled steel mills are actually coupled units where we go from the furnace to the hot rolling mill as one coupled unit. And to make that happen as various parts of the system have normal issues, it can impact the other units. So what we're seeing now and we've seen days, we've seen weeks, now we've seen month of continuous reduction of unplanned downtime, better reliability of the equipment and also just as important, making sure that all the products that are actually being produced are able to get to higher value destinations through the mill, whether it's selling it as hot rolled, cold rolled or coated products. So as we see each of the units in the mill respond, we see the uptime increasing.

We see the yields getting better and better. And as we start controlling the cost situation, we see a very good path towards this facility running well. We have had weeks that were nearly at capacity. And that again is more reasons we have confidence in what we see. So we see kind of the watershed moments happening under our feet.

We anticipate Q4 to finish strong, and it really sets the stage for 2025 to really allow this facility to show the stakeholders what they've been doing and how well they've been earning it down there. Hope that helps.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: Yes, the color is definitely helpful. And then maybe if I could just follow-up to that, I think it's probably directed toward Teresa. I mean, when you think of Cintiq now kind of being there or close to being where you need it to be and you look at the dividend consideration for February, Could we anticipate that the dividend increase in February might be more material than we've seen more recently? And then how will the aluminum dynamics start up factor into that decision?

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: It's a very good question, Lawson, a very tricky question. So, the Board is who determines what the dividend will be and you're correct. We like to keep a positive dividend profile and that generally happens in the Q1 of each year and I would anticipate the same absent any extraneous things occurring this year as well. We do expect to have certain be a significant EBITDA contributor next year, which hasn't been up to this point. So that's a significant change in the earnings profile.

That being said, we'd like to see how Sinton operates in 2025. So I would expect to see a positive dividend move, but I can't really speak to the magnitude of that at this point in time. As it relates to the aluminum assets starting in 2025, very excited about that. As I mentioned in my prepared notes, we do expect those investments to be EBITDA positive in the second half of twenty twenty five, which is pretty extraordinary. So we really start to see that benefit 2026.

So I would think that would generally be kind of a timeframe to think about how that contributes to through cycle cash flow and possible dividend moves.

Lawson Winder, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay, great. Thank you all very much.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is coming from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

Timna Tanners, Analyst, Wolfe Research: Yes. Hey, good morning.

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: I wanted to probe a

Timna Tanners, Analyst, Wolfe Research: bit more the status of the value add lines ramp up ramping up the four lines between paint and coated galv. Just looking at the volumes, it wasn't clear to me like what utilization you have those lines at and what we might have yet to see play out as they ramp up.

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: Timna, this is Barry. The line all 4 of the new lines we added are actually operating at somewhere around 65% to 75%. As we discussed with the trade cases, we've seen some pressure in certain coated products, particularly Galvalume. So we are trying to make sure we're efficiently running those lines and making sure we don't waste money by operating it at levels that perhaps we could do with the existing lines. So what we look at is the ability to really allow each line to do the proper product mix to be very efficient and to be very good yields.

So we're really excited with what we've seen. The Terre Haute operations are definitely improving the opportunity for that facility to reach more markets, diversifying that product mix there by adding a second coating opportunity with galvalume and with the prepaint opportunity has really opened up relationships with new customers as well as existing customers who needed those products in that region. And at Sinton, the additional lines really allow us to have a more efficient operation between our galvanized coatings and our galvalume coatings. So it might be a bit technical, but we're really excited how the lines perform. The quality itself has been very good and that is difficult with these type products.

These are a lot of this new capacity is prepainted markets, which have very demanding customer base. So we've been really excited to see how the teams have responded and the sales team continues to bring new opportunities to the mills to Tulum.

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: As it relates to their contribution to earnings, I would say that that really hasn't been significantly impactful up to this point. So as a reminder, the four lines were about a $600,000,000 investment. And generally, the paint and galvanizing lines for us, given our supply chain differentiation, have a payback period of anywhere between 2 3 or 2.5 years. So pretty significant. You're going to start to really see their impact in 2025, I think as everything gets ramped up.

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: And just one follow-up thought in the at Cintam. Obviously, the volume throughput on those lines is a little inhibited right now because of the hot side not being at full capacity. So as you see, as we increase the throughput on the hot side, the volumes through those two lines down there will increase in tandem.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Okay. That's really helpful. So for modeling purposes, if

Timna Tanners, Analyst, Wolfe Research: we look at the what 1.3 plus million tons in the quarter of galvanized, that represents about or galvanized and coated, that represents about 65% of the new capacity ramping up. So we have yet to see that remaining third or so flow through and we would expect that conditional to the imports coming off. Is that fair?

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: So in that coded number, it's not just our lines that you're seeing, Timna. And no, it wouldn't show like shipments of that at that rate because you also have our United Steel supply and you have other processing facilities rolling through that that aren't really included and a lot of the benefit of the additional volume in the Q3 actually came through different avenues. So there's I think I would suggest there's more volume that's still the benefit, it's not just a third.

Timna Tanners, Analyst, Wolfe Research: Okay. Thanks. Maybe I'll follow-up on. Appreciate it.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is coming from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

Bill Peterson, Analyst, JPMorgan: Yes. Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the questions. Maybe following up some of the questions around utilization and also around the last question too. Can you help us understand if Sinton's profitability meaningfully improved in the Q3? I think it was around breakeven in the Q2.

And then on the 4 new coating lines, are these profitable yet? And I guess, obviously, related to some of the trade questions you were answering earlier. But if they're not, when would you expect them to be profitable?

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: So from the perspective of Sinton, no, in the Q3, because we had additional outage time that Barry actually mentioned and because we had additional maintenance costs related to that, And Sinton wasn't EBITDA positive in the Q3, but we have full expectations that it will be in the Q4 and certainly next year. As it relates to the lines, they're really integral into the operations of the steel mills themselves. So, to answer that question is a little bit difficult. Again, I would tell you, as Mark mentioned earlier and Barry and now I will for a 3rd time, we expect the value add lines to really benefit 2025. So as you think about your modeling, I would add that as an additional benefit for us that's outside of just normal market dynamics.

Bill Peterson, Analyst, JPMorgan: Great. Thanks for that. And on sort of the lower carbon items, and thanks for providing the color there. It looks like on the bio carbon project, particularly, it looks like it's going to be a few quarters before operation. But what remains to be done before operational start?

And then I guess when do you plan to introduce internally produced bio carbon into your steel production flows? Do you have is there I mean is there a need for customer commitments for the products with this biocarbon? Or do you expect a premium for products coming using that product?

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: That's a good question. I would hope to have a premium, but Barry is laughing at me. So the biocarbon facility team is doing a great job. It's still under construction. And again, everything is pointing toward a Q1 2025 start.

We will have that product. It's already been fully tested at each of the steel mills that will be receiving it. We don't have enough product to satisfy all of the carbon needs at our steel mills, but a majority of it. So we'll start using that and easing that into the product mix for the steel mills as we enter the first half of next year. As far as whether or not there's premium charge to that product, that's just going to be part of our decarbonization journey.

So it's going to be used as a matter of whether it's not for a specific customer necessarily. It will be just part of the normal operating mechanisms for each of the steel mills as a different lower carbon raw materials that substituting for anthracite.

Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer, Steel Dynamics: Yes. Therese, I would just add on that that we don't need customer approvals for this product. It's so early in the process that the use of what kind of carbon doesn't factor into what the final steel product will actually how it will perform. And I would think of it as it's not a binary decision where it's one or the other. So the path towards introducing this to the mills will really flow based on how the startup goes and the proximity and how the teams respond to it.

The trials that have been done have been very successful through the Aimmune pilot facility. So we have a good working knowledge going into this and the Melchop teams are regularly meeting with the biocarbon team and we're excited about it. It's a beautiful plant down in Mississippi.

Bill Peterson, Analyst, JPMorgan: Thanks Barry and Theresa. Appreciate it.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is coming from Andrew Jones with UBS. Please pose your question. Your line is live.

David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations, Steel Dynamics0: Hi, Tim. Thanks for the opportunity. Just on the market in 2025, I mean, we hear the comments that you've made on the positive outlook and potential for demand to recover. But just in a more pessimistic scenario where that doesn't happen, Big River 2 starts to come through, maybe you don't get the same trade protection that you are hoping for. I mean, what would you consider doing within your portfolio to kind of do your bit to help to balance the market?

I mean, would it change your production plans in any way? Or would you be an active participant in trying to market? Or do you see yourself as just a low cost producer and you can essentially take share and expect others to potentially drop out at the higher end of the curve. How do you look at 2025 in that more pessimistic scenario?

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Firstly, we're not pessimistic. We're very, very constructive on the future market in 2025. There are too many things there that will drive that. And our customer base in general, our customer base is very, very positive for 2025. You should have a lower interest rate environment that will kick start non residential construction, new millennium right now.

The order book, the order, the engineering, the whole flow of things is strong. It just needs a slightly lower interest rate environment for those developers to push buttons and move forward. So again, just want to emphasize, we're constructive on the marketplace. Just in general and it's not a matter of 2025 or it's just a matter of any market cycle. We will produce to what our customer base requires quite simply.

Okay. But And then if I can, just the and I think one has to recognize part of our whole business model, it revolves around just that. We recognize that the markets are cyclical in our business. So over the years, since the very beginning, 30 years ago, we've always focused on a very diversified product mix. That product mix is value add, very diverse across actual products, but also markets.

That allows you huge, huge, huge flexibility as markets ebb and flow. A very, very strong part of our strategy has always also been the poultry volume. So if you look today, New Millennium, they consume about 600,000 tons, I think, or thereabouts last year, maybe a little bit more of the products that we make. The conversion facilities at Heartland, they've got roughly 800,000 ton of capability. You have the techs, they have about 800,000 ton capability.

So in all, our internal sort of substrate requirements is well over 2,000,000 tons. We supply some of that internally, but Barry and his team also procures a lot in the marketplace. So we're actually one of the strangely and a lot of people don't recognize it, but we're one of the largest buyers of sheep products in the U. S. Today.

That pull through volume can flex. So if you look at our utilization rates through cycle, those utilization rates are always superior to any of our peers because of that value add diverse product mix and also the pull through volume that we have internally. So even if it does come off a little bit, you will see that we retain our strong cash through cycle cash generation capability without doubt.

David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations, Steel Dynamics0: Okay. Fair enough. But no major closures of higher cost lines or older lines or any sort of reaction to kind of since volumes potentially displacing volumes somewhere else in the portfolio that's not on the agenda?

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: All right. I didn't hear that.

Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steel Dynamics: That's okay. You would say no. No.

David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations, Steel Dynamics0: No. Yes, no. Okay.

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Cool. Okay, no worries. Thank you.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is coming from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Independent (LON:IOG) Research. Please post your question. Your line is live.

David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations, Steel Dynamics1: Thank you for taking my question. Looking out a couple of years, which sectors do you think are most fertile for the next big investment? This year, U. S. Aluminum demand is trending up 5%.

Steel has been down in apparent demand 5 out of 6 years now. Lots of companies have built a lot of steel capacity. Did we expect that aluminum or recycling or some other new area is the candidate for the next big project in 2026 or 2027 or 2028?

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Well, firstly, John, we will always take your question, sir. The As I look across the our portfolio, we're not strong on the recycle markets just in general, where there are regional focused opportunities to vulcanize our supply chains. We certainly will anticipate that or look at that. But I think we have a good recycle sort of platform. You will see us grow here and there to expand our aluminum supply chain.

But that's it won't be meaningful dollars to do that. On the steel side, I think you're correct. I don't see the opportunity necessarily for another 3,000,000 ton a year greenfield site. We're not as you know, we're not in business just to grow big for the sake of it. We want to differentiate our value chain.

We want to always sort of diversify. So the team has identified several value add opportunities, products that we don't make today. And those are sort of percolating in the background and you will see over time us continuing to lever those higher value products. Aluminum is obviously new to us. We want to walk before we run, get the 1st mill up.

But there's no doubt the volume growth in aluminum going forward will be much stronger than steel and gives rise to opportunity there. As you've seen our strategy in the past in steel, the move downstream again into value add products in aluminum, capitalize on our prepaint expertise, I think you will see that also.

David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations, Steel Dynamics1: Thank you.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: That concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Steel Dynamics: Super. Well, for any of our employees and our teams out there that are still on the call, thank you, thank you, thank you for what you do. You're an incredible, incredible team doing incredible things. We can't do what we do without a loyal customer base. And again, thank you, thank you, thank you for your support over the years.

We will continue to try and bring value and create value for you. Shareholders that are on the line that own us, thank you. Those investors that don't own us, all I can say is you should. So from SDI and every employee, thank you for all those that support us. Have a great, great, great day and be safe.

Kelly, Conference Call Operator: Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and have a great

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