CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU) reported record revenue for Q1 2025, reaching $632.4 million, surpassing forecasts. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $0.19 fell short of expectations, leading to a 5.45% drop in its stock price. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value calculation, with analysts setting price targets ranging from $5.75 to $8.44. Despite the revenue beat, investor sentiment was tempered by the earnings miss and broader market conditions.
Key Takeaways
- CES Energy Solutions reported record quarterly revenue of $632.4 million.
- EPS of $0.19 missed the forecast of $0.2038.
- Stock price fell 5.45% following the earnings release.
- Strong growth in the JCAM Catalysts division and continued market leadership in drilling fluids.
- Optimistic outlook for margin improvement in the second half of 2025.
Company Performance
CES Energy Solutions demonstrated robust performance in Q1 2025, with revenue increasing by 7% compared to the same quarter last year. The company’s financial health score of "GREAT" on InvestingPro reflects its strong market position, with impressive metrics including a 24.25% gross profit margin and a healthy current ratio of 2.92x. The company maintained its leadership position in the North American drilling fluids market, benefiting from strong demand and strategic investments in technology and service intensity.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: $632.4 million, up 7% year-over-year.
- EBITDA: $99.9 million, with margins at 15.8%.
- U.S. revenue: $420 million, representing 64% of total revenue.
- Canadian revenue: CAD 230 million, marking an all-time high.
Earnings vs. Forecast
CES Energy’s EPS of $0.19 came in below the forecast of $0.2038, marking a shortfall that investors reacted to negatively. Despite this, the company’s revenue exceeded expectations, coming in at $632.4 million against a forecast of $611.99 million. The earnings miss, though minor, overshadowed the revenue beat in the eyes of investors.
Market Reaction
The company’s stock experienced a 5.45% decline in value following the earnings announcement, closing at $6.15. This movement places the stock closer to its 52-week low, reflecting investor concerns over the EPS miss and broader market volatility. Despite the recent decline, the company maintains strong fundamentals with a P/E ratio of 7.21x and consistent dividend payments for 20 consecutive years. For deeper insights into CEU’s valuation and growth potential, investors can access comprehensive analysis through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports, which cover over 1,400 top stocks.
Outlook & Guidance
Looking ahead, CES Energy expects margins to improve in the latter half of 2025. The company’s strong financial position is evidenced by its impressive return on equity of 26% and management’s aggressive share buyback program. The company remains focused on growth opportunities and strategic acquisitions, with plans to complete its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) program involving 19.2 million shares. The company is cautiously optimistic about market conditions, particularly in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB).
Executive Commentary
"Our business has never been stronger or healthier than it is today," stated CEO Ken Zinger, highlighting the company’s robust position. He emphasized the company’s growth prospects, saying, "We believe we have more in front of us than behind us." Zinger also reiterated the company’s commitment to maintaining a debt level within the one to 1.5 times debt to trailing twelve months EBITDAC range.
Risks and Challenges
- Potential pricing pressure from customers could impact margins.
- Volatility in WTI prices may affect revenue and profitability.
- Supply chain disruptions could hinder product delivery and service efficiency.
- Market saturation in key regions may limit growth opportunities.
- Macroeconomic pressures and regulatory changes pose ongoing risks.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the company’s response to WTI price fluctuations and its strategy for capital allocation. CES Energy indicated a flexible approach, with continued investments in growth opportunities despite moderate pricing pressures. The company also addressed its focus on optimizing working capital and exploring strategic acquisitions to enhance its market position.
Full transcript - CES Energy Solutions Corp (CEU) Q1 2025:
Conference Operator: Welcome to the CES Energy Solutions First Quarter twenty twenty five Results Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending today’s call. I’d like to note that in our commentary today, there will be forward looking financial information and that our actual results may differ materially from the expected results due to various risk factors and assumptions. These risk factors and assumptions are summarized in our first quarter MD and A and press release dated 05/08/2025, and in our annual information form dated 03/06/2025. In addition, certain financial measures that we will refer to today are not recognized under current general accepted accounting policies, and for a description and definition of these, please see our first quarter MD and A.
At this time, I’d like
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: to turn the call over to Ken Zinger, our President and CEO. Thank you, Tony. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. On today’s call, I will provide a brief summary of our impressive financial results released yesterday, followed by an update on capital allocation and then our divisional updates for Canada and The U. S.
As well as our outlook for the remainder of 2025. I will then pass the call over to Tony to provide a detailed financial update. We will take questions and then we will wrap up the call. As always, I will start my comments today by highlighting some of the major financial accomplishments we achieved in Q1 of twenty twenty five. These include all time record quarterly revenue of $632,400,000 which was 7% higher than Q1 of last year quarterly EBITDA of $99,900,000 EBITDA margins of 15.8% Total debt to trailing twelve months EBITDA was at 1.17x at the end of Q1 ’20 ’20 ’5, which was at the lower end of our targeted range of 1x to 1.5x.
Cash conversion cycle days in Q1 of ’1 hundred and ’3 days, a significant achievement and well below the lower end of our targeted range of one hundred and ten to one hundred and fifteen days. As of the end of Q1, we had repurchased 13,300,000.0 shares of the 19,200,000.0 shares or approximately 70% of the amount allowed under our current NCIB program. By way of update on our capital allocation plans, I’m happy to report the following. Consistent with our prior messaging, we intend to address the dividend once per year in Q4 or Q1 as evidenced by our 42.5 percent increase announced in March. This is possible due to our confidence in the cash generating capability of CES in the current market environment.
We will continue to support the business with the necessary investments required to provide acceptable growth and returns. This includes anticipated CapEx in 2025 of CAD 80,000,000. We will continue to investigate strategic tuck in acquisition opportunities into related business lines or geographies where we believe we can add value and grow returns. In the coming months, we intend to fully execute on our NCIB program of 19,200,000.0 shares, of which approximately 2.9 shares remain to be purchased prior to its expiry on July 21. At that time, we intend to again to once again renew the NCIB for another 10% of the float for the upcoming year.
We will continue to target a debt level in the one to 1.5 times debt to trailing twelve months EBITDAC range. I’ll now move on to summarize Q1 performance overall and by division. Today, our rig count in North America stands at 182 rigs out of the six eighty seven currently listed as operating, representing an industry leading North American land market share of over 26.5%. In Q1, ’60 ’4 percent of CES revenue was generated in The United States and 36% in Canada. In fact, our Canadian revenue set an all time quarterly record.
Of the overall corporate revenue, 54% was generated by the production chemical businesses and 46% by the drilling fluid businesses. As referenced on our year end 2024 update call in March of this year, margins in Q1 were adversely affected by a variety of headwinds, the most notable being an influx of rigs all starting at the same time in early January, which caused noise in the numbers during the first half of Q1, Canadian dollar devaluation versus the U. S. Dollar during Q4 and Q1, which affected cost of goods on our Canadian business purchases, which are almost entirely made in U. S.
Dollars. Tariff uncertainty, which has caused massive restructuring of our supply chain as we attempt to purchase and manufacture as much as possible within the same country as it is being sold. Counter tariff uncertainty on our Canadian businesses due to approximately 60% of our inputs being purchased in The United States. In Canada, the Canadian drilling fluids business continues to lead WCSV in market share. Today, we are providing full service to 41 of the 120 jobs listed as underway in Canada or a 34.2 market share.
The active drilling rig count in Canada so far in 2025 has been trending consistently higher by approximately 5% year over year. We remain optimistic about the prospects for 2025 due to completion and full startup of infrastructure projects and their associated takeaway capacity. The impending startup of LNG Canada and the recent startup of Trans Mountain leave us very optimistic about the market conditions in the WCSB as a whole. Although not immune from low oil prices, the WCSB is still in a great position to weather any storm materialize. PureChem, our Canadian production chemical business had another very strong quarter in Q1.
PureChem continued its outsized growth versus the general activity increases in the company. All of the business lines within PureChem continued to grow as we take market share, win bids and optimize formulations. The revenue and earnings from our primary business, Production Treating, continues to drive the growth in Canada as we consistently strive to deliver superior products and service combined with competitive market pricing. Although we believe there could be a pullback in completion activity in Canada during the second half of twenty twenty five, fracking remains a small contributor to our overall PureChem business. We continue to believe we are the clear number one provider of production chemistry to the Canadian conventional market and we are growing meaningfully in the heavy oil market as well.
In The United States, AES, our drilling fluids group is providing chemistries and service to 141 of the five sixty seven rigs listed as active in The U. S. Land market today for a continued number one market share of U. S. Land rigs at around 25%.
This once again marks the highest ever market share by AES at U. S. Land market. The number of rigs drilling in The USA is down by just over 4% since we reported in March versus our AES rig count, which is actually up by over 2%. We continue to look forward to using this tightening market as an opportunity to showcase our R and D and technology development capability, our manufacturing capability and our procurement sophistication to continue to grow our market share at AES.
We see these unique capabilities as key to enabling us to come out of any potential slowdown with an even stronger position in the market. Currently, we enjoy a basin leading 107 rigs out of the two eighty seven listed as working in the Permian Basin or an all time record 37.3%. The Permian industry rig count is down since March by approximately 9% overall. But in spite of this, our rig count is up by 7%. This speaks to the quality of our customer base well as the fact that operators continue to put more emphasis on performance as well as stable strategic suppliers.
Finally, AES completion services continues to operate at a much higher level than prior to our acquisition of them last year. Although still small within the AES division, this team is experiencing outsized growth as they continue to benefit from the AES infrastructure, people and reputation. Our JChem Catalysts division continues its trend of strong growth through these past few years and into 2025. The division is focused on further market penetration in all areas in which they operate. An outweighted share of the announced CapEx spend for 2025 is allocated to supporting the growth we anticipate is coming later this year at JCAM.
We are also adding staff and key employees in this division due to this anticipated growth. It is important to note that JCAM’s business like PureChem’s is almost entirely leverage to production related spending by E and Ps and therefore not as sensitive to the same activity related uncertainty that some upstream revenues can face. We look forward to JCAM continuing its march to being the number one provider of production chemistry and service to The United States land market. At this time, I would like to reiterate the confidence that we have in the resilience of our business model in the face of the current market uncertainty. Our business is countercyclical and requires minimal CapEx, especially during times of disruption in our industry.
In this WTI or tariff and tariff environment, we have witnessed expressions of reduced activity levels and capital spending in earnest by some customers. Our current strategy is a continued cautious focus on growth, maintaining relationships with current clients and continuing to pursue potential new clients and markets. As we have done in previous periods of industry weakness, we will be supporting operators in the weaker environment than reaping the benefits of that support as conditions improve. Since our last call in March, the U. S.
Canadian dollar exchange rate has settled back into the range of where it held most of last year. This will alleviate the sudden cost of goods inflation we were feeling throughout Q1 and into Q2 in the Canadian businesses. Although this pressure impacted costs in Q1 and will again to some degree in Q2, it now appears it was transitory and should dissipate in the coming quarters. With regard to USA tariffs and the suggested Canadian counter tariffs, these continue to have little to no direct effect on our business in their current state. However, we are continuing initiatives to rearrange supply chains in order to minimize potential exposures as much as possible.
We are also reworking some internal production schedules in order to realign manufacturing to produce as many products as possible within the same country in which they are being sold. Although this is a month long process, significant progress has already been made and we will continue with this strategy until we have insulated the business as much as possible from future tariff risks. I will state again for clarity that we continue to expect the direct impact from tariffs to be insignificant to our overall business. Finally, to address the macro uncertainty in the markets today, I just want to comment that our business has never been stronger or healthier than it is today and that we are uniquely positioned and strategically focused to not only weather this headwind, but also to benefit from it. We intend to accomplish this by not only utilizing our NCIB to repurchase and cancel shares at these levels, but also through strategic execution of plans to expand our business with customers and markets we already are participating in as well as some of we have been working to penetrate.
As always, I want to extend my appreciation to each and every one of our employees for their commitment to the business culture and success of CES. Due to the growth we are still experiencing in all parts of our business, we have increased our total number of employees at CES from 2,530 on January 1 to 2,613 at the end of the Q1. This growth is representative of the opportunities we are currently executing on as well as the business we believe we have upcoming. Although there may be more uncertainty in the markets today, we continue to position ourselves to provide the same industry leading support to our customers for the business we currently have direct line of sight on. With that, I’ll pass the call to Tony for the financial update.
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: Thank you, Ken. CES’ financial results for the first quarter set a record revenue level and demonstrated continuation of strong adjusted EBITDAC, funds flow from operations and high quality earnings despite muted rig counts in The U. S. These results underpin the unique resilience of CS’ consumable chemicals business model. CS continued to effectively deploy strong surplus cash flow to return capital to shareholders while investing in strategic CapEx and working capital to support our record revenue run rate and position the company for identified growth opportunities.
In Q1, CS generated revenue of $632,000,000 representing an annualized run rate of approximately $2,530,000,000 and a 7% increase over the prior year’s $589,000,000 Revenue generated in The U. S. Was $4.00 $2,000,000 and represented 64% of total revenue compared to $390,000,000 in Q4 twenty twenty four and an increase of 4% over prior year revenue of $388,000,000 Revenue generated in Canada achieved an all time record at CAD230 million, up from CAD215 million in Q4 and fourteen percent above the CAD201 million generated a year ago, driven by strong performance in both Canadian drilling fluids and PureChem production chemicals operations. CES continued to support high levels of service intensity and production chemical volumes driven by complex drilling programs and also benefited from the appreciating U. S.
Dollar during the quarter. Customer emphasis on optimizing production through effective chemical treatments benefited both countries and countered declines in U. S. Industry rig counts, showcasing the resilience of our business model. Adjusted EBITDAC in Q1 was approximately $100,000,000 compared to $103,000,000 in Q4 twenty twenty four and CAD102 million in Q1 twenty twenty four.
Q1’s adjusted EBITDAC margin of 15.8% compared to prior year and prior quarter margins of 17.317%, respectively, and was in line with the company guidance of being in the midpoint of our targeted 15.5% to 16.5% range for the quarter. This margin reflected variations in product mix, elevated SG and A to support upcoming growth opportunities and input cost fluctuations realized during the quarter, primarily related to FX swings. CES generated $60,000,000 in cash flow from operations in the quarter compared to $62,000,000 in Q4 and $86,000,000 in Q1 twenty twenty four. The slight decrease in cash flow from operations was driven by an increase in working capital requirements to support record revenue levels, offset by very strong funds flow from operations. Funds flow from operations, or FFO, which isolates the effect of seasonal working capital builds, was $78,000,000 in Q1 compared to $69,000,000 in Q4 and $74,000,000 a year ago.
Free cash flow for the quarter was $26,000,000 compared to CAD 35,000,000 in Q4 twenty twenty four and CAD 58,000,000 in Q1 twenty twenty four. As measured by a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate, this equates to approximately 26% in the current quarter or 39% on a trailing twelve month basis. The sequential decrease in free cash flow was driven directly by an $18,000,000 investment in working capital to support record revenue levels compared to an investment of $7,000,000 in Q4, combined with an acceleration of approximately $5,000,000 of incremental strategic CapEx initiatives during the quarter to mitigate potential future tariff related pricing and cost increases. Absent these items, free cash flow for Q1 would have been CAD48 million, representing a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDAC conversion rate of 48%. CES maintained a prudent approach to capital spending through the quarter with CapEx spend net of disposal proceeds of CAD26 million, representing 4% of revenue.
We will continue to adjust plans as required to align with business conditions while supporting attractive growth opportunities throughout our divisions. For 2025, we continue to expect cash CapEx to be approximately $80,000,000 split evenly between maintenance and expansion capital to support incremental accretive business development opportunities and current record revenue levels. And we have the flexibility to alter spending levels commensurate with changes in end markets and required support levels. During the quarter, we continued to be active in our NCIB program, purchasing 2,700,000.0 shares at an average price of $7.89 per share for a total cash outlay of $21,100,000 representing 1.2% of outstanding shares as of 01/01/2025. To date, we have repurchased 16,300,000.0 of the $19,200,000 available under the current NCIB at an average price of $7.59 per share.
And since the inception of the NCIB program in July of twenty eighteen, CES has repurchased 75,000,000 shares, representing approximately 32% of the outstanding shares at that time, purchased for an average price of $3.71 per share. We ended the quarter with $469,000,000 in total debt, representing an increase of $17,000,000 from the prior quarter and $35,000,000 year over year. Total debt is primarily comprised of the $200,000,000 senior notes and a net draw on the senior facility of $158,000,000 and $102,000,000 in lease obligations. Total debt to adjusted EBITDAC of 1.17x at the end of the quarter compared to 1.12x at December 31 and 1.28x a year ago, demonstrating our continued commitment to maintaining prudent leverage levels. The prudent capital structure is further illustrated by our current net draw of $173,000,000 which has increased by $15,000,000 from the end of the quarter, primarily as a result of our quarterly dividend payment and continued NCIB spending.
Following the quarter end, we closed the amendment and extension of our senior credit facility, which included an increase to the Canadian facility by CAD100 million to get to a total facility size of approximately CAD550 million versus CAD450 million previously. The new facility also provides improved pricing, rightsized definitions and covenants and an extended term out to November 2028. This amendment, in conjunction with last year’s issuance of senior notes due May 2029, leaves CES with no near term debt maturities. The upsized credit facility and improved terms are consistent with the increased size, scale and improved credit profile of CES. The new credit facility provides ample liquidity, optionality on return of capital opportunities and flexibility to repay or refinance the senior notes on our own schedule on suitable terms over the coming years.
On May 2, DBRS announced a ratings upgrade from B High Positive to BB low stable, reinforcing the resiliency and creditworthiness of CES Energy Solutions. We are very comfortable with our current debt level, maturity schedule and leverage in the lower end of the one to 1.5 times range, thereby enabling strong return of capital to shareholders and prioritizing a sustainable dividend and share buybacks. I would also note that our working capital surplus of $687,000,000 exceeded total debt by $218,000,000 and demonstrated continued improvement compared to $2.00 $3,000,000 in the prior year. Our continued focus on working capital optimization has led to sustained improvements in cash conversion cycle, which ended the quarter at one hundred and three days. This also translates to a reduction in operating working capital as a percentage of annualized quarterly revenue to 27% from 28% last quarter.
Each percentage improvement at these revenue levels represents approximately CAD20 million of additional cash on our balance sheet. Internally, we have continued to focus on return on average capital employed metrics at the divisional levels. This approach has led to a cultural adoption of ROCE maximizing factors such as profitable growth, strong margins, working capital optimization and prudent capital expenditures. I am proud to report that the resulting consolidated TTM ROCE continues to be strong at 22% compared to 24% a year ago. As demonstrated through our results, CS is bigger, stronger and more resilient than ever before, enabling financial stability during volatile industry periods and valuable optionality for capital allocation options.
At this time, I’d like to turn the call back to the operator to allow for questions.
Conference Operator: Thank First question comes from John Gibson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
John Gibson, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just first on some some of the investments you made in JCAM. Jeff, can you talk about how that business could perform in a lower commodity environment? I know it’s more production oriented, but maybe weigh that with potential growth, especially with the investments you’ve made.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Yes, sure. I mean, we’ve got some we believe we have some business coming this year that we’ve been kind of verbally notified of. This hasn’t been formally awarded yet. So we’re not prepared to speak to that yet. But it’s enough business that we couldn’t handle it with the current structure.
So we had to put some capital on the ground in order to increase storage at the facilities and get some delivery capability as well as hire quite a few people to support it. So pretty excited about JCAM and PureChem both are growing in this actually every division is growing at this in this market right now. So don’t believe there’s any risk in the market that that growth doesn’t continue this year based on what we see in front of us.
John Gibson, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Okay, got it. Thank you. And second for me, I mean, you talked about in the preamble about CS has historically taken these downturns and turned it into market share gains. I don’t even know if we’re there yet, but I guess, we there yet in terms of pricing compression, having to work with customers a little bit in any of your businesses? Or is that something you’re maybe projecting here into Q2 or the back half of the year?
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: No, I think there’s been the analysts are all out there talking about a potential slowdown. I personally we’ve had some a couple of handful of customers, let’s put it that way, reach out about finding ways to improve costing, either through how they’re utilizing chemistries or the types of chemistries they’re using. So there’s a little bit of noise in the market, I would describe it as more so in The U. S. Than Canada.
But personally, don’t this is nowhere near any kind of a downturn where we’re facing something that could happen. It’s not a definite. And it’ll all depend on the outcome of the tariff stuff that’s going on in The U. S. As well as whatever happens at OPEC.
But we’re not anticipating a big slowdown and we’re definitely positioned and have already started taking advantage of some of that, as you can see by the rig counts in The U. S. And how we’re growing share even though the counts are declining. And we’ve been talking about the fact that, that our U. S.
Drilling fluids group has been growing throughout the last couple of years and that has continued into this, call it, a little bit of a lull here while everybody waits to see what’s going on.
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: The other thing I would add, this is updated every quarter in our investor presentation that’s posted on the website, is the nature of our customers that support the outsized growth and maintenance of strong market share. 80% of our customers 80% of our revenue is derived by public company customers that are typically bigger, more active and more results oriented. And 70% of all of the revenue that we get are from companies that have market caps of $10,000,000,000 plus up to 708 hundred billion dollars So these are results oriented guys that aren’t tone deaf to the WTI fluctuations, especially as you get into the 60s or lower than that for a period of time, hopefully. But these are also typically, as you’ve seen through research and a lot of announcements towards the lower end of declines in activity levels and rig counts.
John Gibson, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Okay, great. I appreciate the response guys. And I’ll turn it back. Thanks.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Thanks, John.
Conference Operator: The next question comes from John M. Daniel with Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.
John M. Daniel, Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners: Good morning, guys. Thanks for having me. I was trying to write as fast as I could and I missed some things. So hopefully you can remind me. On the headcount, can you tell me what those numbers were and the change and then what’s driving that?
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Yes, sure. I mean, I’m just pulling that paper up. I know roughly what but the change is being driven primarily by the growth that we’re seeing, both that contributed to the revenue increase in Q1 as well as what we have in the books coming in the second half of the year. So our growth was we went up by 83 people between January 1 and March 31 from twenty fivethirty to twenty sixthirteen.
John M. Daniel, Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners: Wow. Okay. It’s impressive. Going back to your customers, you mentioned you work for a lot of the sort of more consequential ones, sort of $10,000,000,000 market cap and more, and those have been the ones leading the consolidation efforts. Can you speak to how quickly they shift work from to their incumbents such as CES?
What’s the transition time?
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: Yes. It takes time. It can take months. But on average, the punch line is we’ve been neutral in most of those cases positively affected by that consolidation for the reason that you just mentioned.
John M. Daniel, Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners: Okay. That’s good. And then the last one, and sorry to be a question hog, but I think you mentioned in response to the prior question that you said something along changes in chemistry. Can you elaborate on that? And how do those changes impact well performance?
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: The types of chemistry we run vary like the prices on that stuff moves around all the time. So different ingredients can cause different commercial products to vary. And you can have chemistries that work equally as well. It’s just that as prices come down on a specific input, it can affect the overall cost of that product. So it’s just it’s constantly evaluating to see if we can find go back and forth between the cheaper commodities that are out there.
John M. Daniel, Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners: Fair enough. Okay. So nothing material from a production standpoint down
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: the road for people by changing the chemistry?
John M. Daniel, Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners: Correct. Awesome.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: And it’s included in conjunction with operators. Okay,
John M. Daniel, Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners: perfect. Thank you.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Thanks, John. Thanks, John.
Conference Operator: The next question comes from Keith MacKey with RBC. Please go ahead.
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: Hey, good morning. Just like to start out on the margin. Can you comment on what you think the margin in Q1 would have been absent some of those transitory items you talked about? And secondarily, how do you think the rest of the year plays out relative to that 15.5% to 16.5% range?
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: Yes. Sure. I’ll get I’ll start off. So when you look at those items, product mix is something that is unpredictable any given month, week, quarter. So let’s park that one because that could go either way.
And then there’s another component, is an elevated level of SG and A that we began to realize in Q1 to support some of the very focused revenue increase opportunities that we’re likely to see in Q2 and Q3 and we’re prepared for them right now. And so that one is going to stick for the next couple of quarters. And but the bigger one that was the transitory nature was the increased cost that we realized in Q1 as a result of FX fluctuation where our products got more expensive and it takes a little bit of time to pass that on. And absent that specific one, we would have expected margins to be up by approximately 40 to 50 basis points versus the 15.8% that we’re at. And then I guess the other part that I’d be remiss in not emphasizing is the fact that, that product mix can swing either way.
The SG and A drag is not massive, but it’s a great investment given the great opportunities we see in front of us. And we could throttle that back if we need to over the next quarter or so. But again, logically, we’re going into Q2 versus Q1. And because of our Canadian business and breakup, you’ll see EBITDA and margins a little bit lower as you always see every year.
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: Got it. Okay. So yes. Baseline would have been higher in Q1. You’re going to see a bit of a downtick in Q2 based on some seasonal factors and whatnot.
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: Correct. And also inherent in that is the answer to the second part of your question was expectation of higher margins in the second half of the year.
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: Got it. Got it. Okay. Now if we think about some of the CapEx reductions announced by some of the E and Ps in The U. S.
Mostly, Are you starting to see outsized asks for pricing cuts? Or is it the same level of pricing pressure you’d be experiencing currently? Just curious if we can get some commentary there that might help us think about how we should be forecasting margins for the rest of the year.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Yes. I
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: guess it’s I’ll start and Ken is a veteran having led this company through previous downturns, right, 2015, ’2 thousand and ’8, again COVID. But what we’ve seen was, to be honest, a shockingly muted response to the significant WTI volatility that we started seeing three or four weeks ago when TI got down to $55 At that time, like we worked with all of our partners across the company, and there was very muted response. And in fact, over the ensuing couple of weeks, there were only a couple of situations where there were very significant demands for pricing concessions. And you it was less than you would count on one hand. And in each of those few cases, our divisions were able to negotiate something that was a little bit of a price reduction and came to terms on a scaling slide where they understand that there will be a reduction in pricing pressure if you’re in 55 area for WTI, that’s pretty clear.
The consensus seem to be if you’re at 65, nobody loves it, but things are okay. At this level at 60 it’s tough, right? And then you saw some great companies like Diamondback and EOG over the last week doing the right thing by adjusting some of their plans. But I would say compared if you look at information and the relative responses during 2020, ’20 ’15, we saw we’ve seen nothing as significant as you saw in those periods.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Yes. I think I’ll jump in there and just say that what we’ve seen so far as far as impact from WTI is nowhere near to what the extremes that we’ve seen in the past. So let’s first of all, of quantify that this is a sort of minor downturn at this point that looks like it could either turn into something or it could turn into nothing. So I would say that customers have come to us pretty much all of them and we’ve been talking to them about pricing in the event that oil prices collapse and we’ll have a plan for that. But where we’re at currently, it’s we’re working with everyone.
They don’t want to see us making outsized margins. I would describe it as based on our inputs going down in costs, happens to a slight degree when oil prices come down. So we’ve got to be cautious of that and cognizant of that and make sure that we’re sharing those wins on the cost side. But other than that, it’s every day, the way that an oil company can demand price relief is to tell you they’re going to fire you and put someone else on it. And when every service company is facing the same pressure, it’s unusual that somebody drops to the bottom, especially with a limited number of service company competitors we have today.
So discipline on the service side combined with being fair with oil companies will get us through this. And once again, this is we’re kind of in no man’s land here at $60 where it’s really, it’s not great, but it’s not that bad. We’re not in the $40 range like we were in 2016 and we’re not in the negative range like we were in 2020. So I think it’s a much more muted pressure right now.
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: I appreciate the comments.
Conference Operator: Thanks, The next question comes from Tim Monachello with ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tim Monachello, Analyst, ATB Capital Markets: Hey, guys.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Good morning, Tim. Good morning, Tim.
Tim Monachello, Analyst, ATB Capital Markets: Good morning. The Canadian market share was through the roof this quarter. Think it has you at 45%, so record. U. S.
Market share also really strong. As part of the product mix issue that you’re seeing just based on the fact you’ve got more activity and that activity profile probably has more monetized offerings within it?
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: One thing that we did notice, I’ll start on something that was a little bit revealing during Q1 especially was that big uptick that we saw or that notable uptick that we saw in rig count that we were on in The U. S. In particular, that came pretty quickly and with a steep curve. And when you look through the numbers and the nature of those rigs that we were bringing on, many of them were not turning to the right immediately. Some of them were moving and many of them were initially working on the lower revenue per rig per day parts of the drilling programs on multi well pads for a few weeks.
And that results in yes, you are on the rigs and yes, the rig count is higher, but the actual revenue that you’re earning and the EBITDA and margin that you’re earning is lower during that period of the well program.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: And then I’ll add to that, that direct to your question on Canada. The pressure in Canada, the work that we picked up in Canada and the inroads we made was primarily in the same stuff we’ve always chased, which is the higher technology driven stuff. The problem in Canada was the exchange rate. Q4, Q1, those numbers started to get hit as our costs went up and that aligned. In a normal market, we would have been passing those through as fast as we could.
But in the market we were in, where oil was under pressure, tariff uncertainty and election, election, everything that was going on super hard to get anybody to want to accept an increase. So we had a really tough time getting increases to match what we were feeling. So we just had to absorb all that. And going forward here, the good news is Canadian dollar has come back down to where it was Canadian dollar U. S.
Exchange rate. So we’re hopeful that the second half of the year will be in a better spot in Canada.
Tim Monachello, Analyst, ATB Capital Markets: Got it. I guess second part of that question is, do you think that Q1 market share was an anomaly in Canada? Or do you think you’ve crossed the threshold where market share will be higher going forward? Obviously, probably not at the same exact level that you’re at in Q1, but higher going forward?
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Yes. I mean, I don’t we’ll see. I mean, it’s bidding season in Canada right now. So we got to go through all that over the next few months. We’ve got I don’t know what the ratio is, but 30% or 40% of our customers have deals that will continue through and they’ve got the other half to 60% will have to go rebid.
But we’re pretty comfortable with we know where the market is and we’re pretty comfortable we’ll be able to retain the work we’ve had. And so I would say that we would hope to continue. I will also say that your number is higher than what we had based on our rig count versus the posted sort of Nichols Baker numbers for rig count, but it is what it is and we expect it to continue.
Tim Monachello, Analyst, ATB Capital Markets: Yes. Was just using the Baker one in Canada.
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: Think you guys used nickel, it might be a bit different.
Tim Monachello, Analyst, ATB Capital Markets: Okay. And then sorry, I got on the call a little bit late, but the capital allocation stock has been under pressure, under pressure again today. How are you thinking about the NCIB, M and A growth all relative to each other, especially in a market that is a little bit uncertain here?
Tony Alucino, Chief Financial Officer, CES Energy Solutions: We’re not going to have a knee jerk reaction is number one. Number two is given our leverage, our liquidity and our business model, we’re well positioned to take advantage of opportunities. And those opportunities could be small, high quality tuck ins that tend to become very attractive opportunities during environments like this. On the NCIB, we’ve been buying consistently every single day, including while in blackout, where our dealer has instructions that we don’t influence at all during that period. We’ll come up for air on Tuesday morning to be able to alter those instructions and being more opportunistic.
We’ll get through the balance of approximately $3,000,000 on the NCIB. We get asked the question a lot on the SIB. We’ve learned where the stock lies and how to take advantage of blocks and opportunities and we’ll do that as soon as we come out of blackout. And in terms of an SIB, we absolutely have the liquidity to do it if we wanted to do it. And as Ken and I have said before, we’re very comfortable seriously considering talking to the Board about an SIB when there is a very logical dislocation, absolute dislocation in the value of the stock and the things that are causing the stock or the sector to be under pressure.
When you have things like the economic uncertainty that we have in North America and globally and probably even more specifically the WTI construct uncertainty that you have right now based on what’s happening with OPEC and Saudi Arabia, we believe it would be misguided to try something like that with conviction. However, if the business continues to go well and we do see stability on those things that were otherwise big variables like the price of WTI and supply and demand, we would obviously take that more seriously because we have the ability to do it.
Tim Monachello, Analyst, ATB Capital Markets: Got it. And then just one quick follow-up on the pricing dynamics. Is that the conversations you’ve had around scalable pricing and lower commodity pricing environments. Is that isolated drilling flows? Are you seeing that on the
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: production chemical side as well?
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: To date, the vast majority has just been on the drilling fluid side.
Conference Operator: The next question comes from Jonathan Goldman with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Goldman, Analyst, Scotiabank: Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Of them have already been asked, but
Keith MacKey, Analyst, RBC: I just have one follow-up.
Jonathan Goldman, Analyst, Scotiabank: Ken, I believe you guys made some investments to kind of improve operations, whether it’s vertical integration, buying new assets to kind of buffer margins a bit or maybe improve margins. I mean a lot of the conversations today has been about downside to pricing in the macro. But I feel you guys have done a lot of internal initiatives to improve margins through the cycle regardless of what happens in the macro. Could you just maybe walk us through some of those things and how those actually improve margins?
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Sure. Yes. I mean, it’s been a long process over the years between grinding facilities in The United States, which at the time we built them, provided us with an advantage over our competitors in The United States. Today, we’re using those facilities to support the Canadian market as well. So that also is providing advantage for us up here.
We bought Cialco in 2017 or 2018 to do specialty manufacturing for us and kind of work on new products and new opportunities. That’s transforming now to with all this tariff stuff and the potential cross border issues to where it’s becoming more like a manufacturing facility similar to what JCAM is for the JCAM Catalyst Group, the Kansas facility. Cialco in Vancouver is becoming a bigger part of the just general manufacturing for PureChem and CES in Canada. And anytime we can get into, there’s not much we can do about the general commodity products and the products that everybody has, but on the stuff that we can make ourselves, it gives us the ability to really specialize, which has of course led to all the service intensity stuff that we’ve benefits that we’ve seen over the last couple of years, but also it helps us on cost of goods and security of supply and in this case avoiding potential tariffs. And we are once again, I’ll just say it like we’re investing right now for growth.
We are not in a position of contraction. We believe we have more in front of us than behind us.
Jonathan Goldman, Analyst, Scotiabank: That’s good color. And then maybe touching on something you mentioned there, the service intensity thematic. How you see that playing out going forward? Has it increased year on year? Is it still increasing in service intensity and the fluids intensity in the market?
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: It is, yes. And I think it will have to continue and potentially even get greater as U. S. Production comes down or flattens to come down. And if you do get a 10% drop in rig count in The U.
S. Short term, that’s
Tim Monachello, Analyst, ATB Capital Markets: going
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: to have massive impact on the value they have to get out of the rigs that are working. Plus I think it’ll lead to way more rigs later when it comes back on and that decline starts becoming more prominent. So intensity is still there, still growing and we’re still capitalizing on it. I think part of what’s happened is 2024 was an extremely stable period of time for CES. And we were really able to fine tune our supply chain and our manufacturing and everything we were doing was coming out of the COVID crisis and all the international shipping problems that the world was facing in 2022 and early twenty twenty three, we really got locked in over the last, over the 2024.
And then at the end of twenty twenty four, beginning of ’20 ’20 ’5, obviously we have this complete rollover on everything we were doing where we have to reevaluate everything. And so it’s going to take some time to grow into that and figure out all the nuances, but we’re working through it and we’ll get there.
Jonathan Goldman, Analyst, Scotiabank: Definitely. Nice to see the work start to bear fruit and continue to bear fruit. Thanks for taking the time, guys.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Thanks, Jonathan. Thanks, Jonathan.
Conference Operator: This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Singer for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Ken Zinger, President and CEO, CES Energy Solutions: Thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. As always, we appreciate your attendance, and we look forward to seeing you in August.
Conference Operator: This brings us to a close today’s conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, have a pleasant day.
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