Investing.com -- The 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, set to take effect on April 3, will be a major disruption to the U.S. automotive industry, but Bernstein analysts believe the impact is “survivable.”
However, they caution that it will “leave scars and likely redraw competitive boundaries.”
According to Bernstein, the tariffs will deliver a blunt shock to gross profit, particularly for import-dependent automakers and suppliers.
The firm estimates an unmitigated tariff impact of approximately $110 billion sector-wide, or around $6,700 per vehicle.
"Ford and GM could face up to 30% EBIT declines in 2025, even with some price pass-through and sourcing adjustments," said Bernstein.
Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) is expected to be relatively more resilient due to its high U.S. content in Mexico-produced models.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) emerges as the biggest winner in this environment. "Tesla is the clear structural winner: localized, strong market share, better insulated from trade risk," said Bernstein.
Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) was also noted as better positioned due to its U.S.-based manufacturing footprint.
Although the full impact of tariffs won’t be immediately visible, Bernstein expects the real cost hit to begin in mid-May and accelerate into Q3 earnings.
The firm warns that FY26 may be even worse, predicting a 20% larger earnings impact unless automakers significantly shift sourcing strategies.
While past tariff efforts have often been walked back, Bernstein analysts say this time could be different.
"This rollout is more coordinated and operationally detailed,” said Bernstein, adding that it makes a reversal less likely. However, they add that Wall Street’s reaction could pressure the administration to reconsider.