(Adds details on futures, progress on relief package, new
quote)
By April Joyner
NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - Wall Street analysts and
investment managers expect another rough week for U.S. markets
due to coronavirus fears, with a wild open for futures on Sunday
evening as lawmakers battled over an economic aid package in
Washington.
Stock-market futures fell sharply and Treasury-bond futures
rose, signaling more "flight-to-safety" trades in the week
ahead. Despite the historic plunge in share prices over the past
few weeks, it is difficult to predict a bottom, Wall Street
analysts and investment managers said.
"We need to get some stabilization in news flow before the
markets turn," said Carol Schleif, deputy chief investment
officer at Abbot Downing.
The spread of coronavirus across the greater New York City
area may be feeding into anxiety on Wall Street, she said. Cases
there skyrocketed over the weekend, with Mayor Bill de Blasio
saying hospital staff are 10 days away from running out of
crucial supplies.
The total number of U.S. coronavirus cases rose to more than
33,000 as of Sunday afternoon, up from about 3,600 a week
earlier, according to Reuters' tally. At least 390 people have
died.
(Click here https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html
for a graphic of U.S. coronavirus cases.)
Several states have expanded their restrictions on business
operations or non-essential movement by citizens in recent days.
Nearly one in three Americans is now being ordered to stay home,
with bustling cities such as New York and Las Vegas all but shut
down. U.S. stocks have already fallen more than 30% from their
mid-February peak as the pandemic has spread, with even the
safest areas of the bond market experiencing liquidity stress in
a market rout not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Just after futures opened on Sunday night, S&P 500 e-minis
ESC1 fell 5% to hit their lower limit, oil prices dropped and
Treasury bond futures rose sharply.
The decline in economic activity will obviously have a
severe impact on the U.S. economy and corporate profits, but
market strategists and economists said it is difficult to
predict just how severe.
Three major factors are how much aid the federal government
will inject into the economy, how effective the aid package's
structure will be and how long it takes for the number of new
cases to start declining in the United States - also known as
"flattening the coronavirus curve."
On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said
Congress was close to finalizing a relief package that would
offer families a one-time $3,000 payment and markets another $4
trillion to support the economy. But it was not clear when such a measure might pass, as
lawmakers argued about the particulars. A bill failed to get
through the first procedural hurdle in the Senate on Sunday
night. Economic data set to be released this week, including
jobless claims, IHS Markit's manufacturing survey and consumer
sentiment, will help determine where things stand, said Oliver
Pursche, chief market strategist at Bruderman Asset Management
in New York. But he emphasized that the absence of a relief
package will further sour investor sentiment.
The market is simply reflecting distress in the real world,
analysts said.
"This is a biological event," said Nela Richardson,
investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis. "The market
is a mere symptom of the global pandemic."