Investing.com -- The shift from U.S. to European equities has reached historic levels, but Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts believe the trade may soon lose momentum.
"The rotation from US into European equities is looking stretched," the firm notes, with average daily excess returns for European stocks over their U.S. counterparts hitting "the highest level in at least 10 years."
The bank explains that investors have been reallocating funds away from U.S. markets due to "US policy uncertainty" and toward Europe in anticipation of "potential European fiscal reforms."
However, with valuations now adjusting, Barclays says the relative advantage of European equities may be diminishing.
At the start of 2025, U.S. stocks were trading near record-high multiples, while European equities were significantly discounted.
"SPX entered 2025 near record-high NTM P/E, while SXXP valuation was in the bottom quartile over 10 years," Barclays explains.
They note that the dynamic drove a valuation re-rating, with the S&P 500 now trading at "20.5x," close to its historical 75th percentile, while the Stoxx Europe 600 has rebounded to "about the long-term median around 14.5x."
Barclays believes the shift in valuations suggests "a fair amount of uncertainty is baked into US stocks at these levels."
They add that large-cap tech stocks, in particular, have seen their multiples compress, with "Big Tech (~25x) and the rest of Tech (~23x) trading at the cheapest NTM multiples in over a year."
While macroeconomic uncertainty remains a factor, Barclays does not expect relative valuation shifts to continue fueling further rotation into European equities at the same pace.
" Macro (BCBA:BMAm) confidence will take time to recover, but we doubt that relative value can continue fueling the rotation into European equities from here," the analysts conclude.