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Investing.com -- NatWest Group PLC (LON:NWG) has emerged as the most likely acquirer for TSB Bank, the U.K. subsidiary of Spanish lender Banco de Sabadell SA (BME:SABE), according to analysis from RBC Capital Markets.
Sabadell confirmed Monday it has received "preliminary non-binding expressions of interest" for TSB, following earlier reports in the Financial Times.
RBC estimates the potential sale price at approximately £2.6 billion, higher than the £1.7-2.0 billion range suggested in press reports.
At this valuation, Natwest could finance the acquisition without raising additional capital by reducing its share buybacks by about £1.1 billion and allowing its CET1 capital ratio to decrease to around 13%.
The acquisition would increase Natwest’s loan book by approximately 10%, boosting its market share in U.K. mortgages by 2.0% and deposits by 1.4%. RBC calculates the deal could be approximately 8% accretive to Natwest’s earnings per share, assuming cost synergies of around 18%.
TSB’s potential sale is viewed as a defensive move by Sabadell against BBVA (BME:BBVA)’s ongoing takeover attempt.
The divestiture would require Sabadell shareholder approval and likely trigger a review by Spain’s securities market regulator CNMV. If completed, the sale would boost Sabadell’s CET1 ratio by approximately 270 basis points.
Other potential bidders reportedly include Barclays PLC (LON:BARC), Santander UK, and HSBC Holdings PLC (LON:HSBA), according to the Financial Times.
RBC notes that while Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON:LLOY) was not mentioned in reports, recent changes at the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority could potentially allow more consolidation in the U.K. banking sector.