Investing.com -- Jefferies analysts have lowered their global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025-2027, citing weaker-than-expected iPhone sales as the primary driver.
“We have cut our global smartphone forecasts by 2.5% to 4.4% in 2025-2027, driven mainly by our recent cut in iPhone numbers,” Jefferies wrote. The firm also reduced estimates for Huawei (HW) and Honor but partially offset the cuts with higher forecasts for OPPO and vivo.
This marks the second downgrade to Jefferies’ global smartphone projections since the industry began recovering in late 2023. The first adjustment came in November 2024, while the latest revision reflects an anticipated 5%-11% decline in iPhone shipments over the next three years.
The analysts attributed Honor’s weakness to “organizational upheaval related to the CEO’s departure” and noted Huawei’s challenges due to “lack of access to 4G chip from QCOM.” Meanwhile, OPPO and vivo have seen stronger trends both in China and internationally.
Jefferies remains cautious about China’s smartphone growth outlook, despite recent optimism. The firm noted that smartphone supply chain stocks in Hong Kong and China surged following strong pre-Lunar New Year sales and excitement surrounding AI.
However, industry checks are said to indicate that China’s smartphone market “rapidly decelerated to negative double-digit growth” during the holiday period. Honor and iPhone were reportedly the weakest brands, both recording “single-digit % negative growth (adjusted for CNY).”
Jefferies attributed Apple’s underperformance to the end of discounts for the iPhone 16 series at major retailers like Suning and Tmall.
Additionally, Jefferies has trimmed its 5G penetration forecasts, lowering international expectations by 3-4 percentage points.