European stocks edge higher; trade deal to prevent U.S. recession

Published 05/16/2025, 03:10 PM
© Reuters

Investing.com - European equity indices edged higher Friday, ending a week that has been dominated by a U.S.-China trade deal on a positive note.

At 03:05 ET (07:05 GMT), the DAX index in Germany climbed 0.4%, the CAC 40 in France gained 0.3% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. rose 0.4%. 

Trade deal prompts optimism

The main European indices have posted healthy gains this week, boosted by the news at the start of the week of a trade deal between China and the U.S., the two largest economies in the world.

The trade agreement has prompted Barclays (LON:BARC) to revise upwards its U.S. growth forecasts, the bank said in a note released late Thursday, and it now expects the U.S. economy to grow 0.5% this year and 1.6% next year, up from previous forecasts of -0.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

The bank no longer expects the U.S. economy to slip into a recession later this year.

Reduced uncertainty and an improved economic backdrop also led Barclays to lift its euro area growth expectations. It now forecasts flat economic growth this year, compared to a 0.2% contraction previously.

Barclays still expects a technical eurozone recession in the second half of 2025, but with growth contracting by less than previously forecast.

"Overall, we remain downbeat about the growth outlook in the euro area because uncertainty remains very elevated and the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs between the European Union and the U.S. remain at a technical level and there are no signs of progress," Barclays said in a note.

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates seven times in the past year, and is widely expected to continue this cycle at its next meeting in early June. 

That said, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said in an interview with CNBC earlier Friday that the ECB’s interest rates are “relatively close to the terminal rate” if inflation stays within range.

Richemont benefits from U.S. demand

There is little of significance to digest on the eurozone economic data slate Friday, but investors have more quarterly earnings to process.

Luxury group Richemont (SIX:CFR), the owner of brands like Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, reported that its group sales increased by 7% in the fourth quarter, as weaker demand in Asia was offset by brisk business in the United States.

Reinsurer Swiss Re (OTC:SSREY) reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, showcasing its strength despite major natural catastrophe losses. 

Dutch insurer Aegon (NYSE:AEG) announced a new buyback program worth €200 million, expected to be completed by the end of this year, after soft first-quarter results. 

Crude on track for weekly gain

Oil prices traded in a largely steady fashion Friday, but were on course for a second consecutive weekly gain due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

At 03:05 ET, Brent futures dropped 0.4% to $64.29 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $61.35 a barrel.

Both benchmarks are on track for weekly gains of around 1%, largely on a surge earlier in the week after the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers, agreed to a 90-day pause on their trade war during which both sides would sharply lower trade duties. 

That said, these gains have been capped by the rising prospect of an Iranian nuclear deal, which could see more crude entering the global market.

 

 

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