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FOREX-Dollar near one-month low after weak data, rally in pound and euro

Published 12/05/2019, 05:23 PM
Updated 12/05/2019, 05:24 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar near one-month low after weak data, rally in pound and euro
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* Dollar's Trump bump runs out of puff
* Kiwi hits 4-month high as rate-cut expectations ebb
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates with more details)
By Sujata Rao
LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The dollar retreated on Thursday
towards one-month lows against a basket of currencies, pressured
by a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data and this week's
robust performance by the euro and the British pound.
Most currencies traded in tight ranges after turmoil induced
by conflicting headlines on the fate of a phase one U.S.-China
trade deal and lack of clarity on whether any kind of agreement
can be reached before Dec. 15, when additional U.S. tariffs kick
in on Chinese goods. But focus was also on how much damage the trade war is
causing and whether the signs of economic stabilisation seen in
the euro zone and Chinese data can continue.
German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in October, data
showed on Thursday, but U.S. trade, durable goods orders and
weekly jobless data are likely to garner greater attention later
in the day.
That data will follow Wednesday's dismal figures on private
payrolls and services activity. On Monday data showed U.S.
manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month
and construction spending declined Meanwhile, manufacturing activity in the euro zone beat
expectations.
"The data has been a little bit on the disappointing side so
the dollar is having a pretty bad week. But a large part of that
is also to do with the move in major European currencies and
that has weighed on the dollar," said Stephen Gallo, European
head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
Sterling is up more than 1.5% this week to the dollar, as it
appears likely that the Conservative Party will win a majority
in next week's election and end 3-1/2 years of Brexit-related
uncertainty by taking Britain out of the European Union.
That has given a boost to the euro, which has also benefited
from recent better-than-expected data. It has gained 0.6%
against the dollar this week.
The euro EUR= firmed marginally against the dollar on
Thursday to $1.1086 while the greenback edged down 0.14% against
a basket of currencies .DXY to 97.517.
The British pound traded at a new seven-month high of
$1.3146 and against the euro too it extended gains to a new
2-1/2-year high of 84.31 pence The question now is whether the U.S. Federal Reserve could
turn dovish if the weak data flow continues. No Fed rate rise is
priced in until next September but traders will be on the watch
for the tone of its statement.
"The ADP payrolls report was slightly disappointing, and if
replicated in Friday's jobs numbers, could prompt speculation
about the prospect of the Fed being a little more dovish at next
week's central bank rate meeting," CMC Markets told clients.
Earlier, domestic factors moved the Antipodean currencies in
opposite directions. The Australian dollar AUD=D3 slipped 0.2% to $0.6838 after
weak retail sales and exports data but the kiwi NZD= climbed
to a four-month high, as softer-than-expected banking reforms
led to a reduction in rate-cut expectations. The Canadian dollar CAD=D3 traded at a near one-month high
of 1.3203 per greenback, after the country's central bank held
interest rates steady and said there were signs the global
economy was stabilising.

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