RPT-UPDATE 1-Short-term pain, long-term gain: Indonesia could plug nickel pig iron gap

(Repeats item issued late Monday)
* Indonesia's NPI output could reach 530,000 T by 2020
-analyst
* Indonesia nickel ore export ban to disrupt supply to top
NPI
producer China
* Indonesia's NPI capacity may match China's by 2021 -Wood
Mackenzie

By Mai Nguyen
SINGAPORE, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia may be able to plug
an expected shortfall in nickel pig iron (NPI) supplies caused
by its nickel ore export ban starting next year by boosting its
own capacity to produce the semi-finished metal used to make
stainless steel.
China, the world's biggest nickel user, has traditionally
imported nickel ore from Indonesia, the world's biggest ore
producer, to produce NPI to make stainless steel. But that
supply chain will be disrupted by the ore export ban set to
start on Jan. 1, part of Indonesia's push to develop a
higher-value domestic metal processing industry. Indonesia accounted for 26% of global nickel ore supplies
last year, according to the International Nickel Study Group
(INSG), but since 2016 has ramped up production of NPI, an
intermediate product containing around 10% nickel used by
stainless steel mills.
The increase in NPI production has mostly come from Chinese
companies operating in Indonesia.
From nearly zero in 2014, Indonesia's NPI output climbed to
261,000 tonnes a year in 2018, according to data from
Australia's Macquarie Group Ltd.
That could climb to as much as 530,000 tonnes in 2020,
according to estimates from Chinese trading firm Grand Flow
Resources.
"It is estimated that the annual increase of nickel metal
content in NPI will be 130,000 tonnes a year. The high speed
expansion will extend from 2020 to 2021," said Wang Chongfeng,
an analyst at Grand Flow Resources.
Energy and minerals consultants Wood Mackenzie forecast that
by 2021, Indonesian NPI output will surpass China's, which is
estimated at 570,000 tonnes this year.
"It is possible some, and ultimately all, of the lost NPI
production in China could be offset by NPI production increase
in Indonesia – but this will take some time," said analyst Linda
Zhang of Wood Mackenzie.
The expected disruption of ore supply and the resulting
curtailment of Chinese NPI output has caused nickel prices to
surge.
London nickel CMNI3 rose to a five-year high on Monday and
has leaped over 70% this year, while Shanghai nickel SNIcv1
hit a record as markets feared the stainless steel industry,
which consumes 70% of global nickel output, will lack supplies.
Indonesia in 2018 produced 289,868 tonnes of primary nickel,
which includes NPI and other nickel products, a 42% surge from a
year earlier, but consumed a lot of that extra tonnage itself,
utilising 165,000 tonnes in 2018, INSG data showed.
That additional metal processing is also leading to higher
output of stainless steel from Indonesia, exports of which rose
sharply in 2018 and are expected to continue climbing.

With metal stocks for delivery on the London and Shanghai
exchanges being tight, stockpiling by Chinese NPI producers
could underpin market sentiment for the coming months, but "time
is limited," said Xu Aidong, Antaike's chief nickel analyst.
SNI-TOTAL-W MNISTX-TOTAL
The extent of any enduring supply shortage depends on how
quickly other ore exporters crank up output and shipments in
response to the elevated prices.
Philippine nickel miners are expected to boost ore
production next year, but may still not be able to fill up the
supply gap. "There's a decent chance that... the Philippines ramp up a
little bit more but not huge amount. We're talking maybe 50,000
tonnes," said BMO's commodities research director Colin
Hamilton.
Analysts said the Philippines faced the challenge of the
approaching rainy season, stricter emissions controls coming
into effect, and limited new mine capacity.
Other ore producers in Australia, Canada, Russia and New
Caledonia are also expected to attempt to raise output, but face
similar constraints.
"Ore from Indonesia could not be readily be replaced from
Philippines or any other ore exporting country, and the only
possible outcome is a decline in NPI production in China," said
Wood Mackenzie's Zhang.

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Primary nickel production by top producers https://tmsnrt.rs/2kb7ioY
Nickel mine and primary metal production by top producers https://tmsnrt.rs/2kc4OXq
Global nickel prices surge on Indonesian ore export ban, tight
exchange stocks https://tmsnrt.rs/2k8C5CN
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