Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged higher Thursday, bouncing from near five-month lows in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy-setting meeting, while sterling edged lower after benign unemployment data and ahead of a Bank of England meeting.
At 05:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.5% higher to 103.560, bouncing off a five-month low touched earlier this week.
Dollar gains after Fed meeting
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, as widely expected, but policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year, even as they expect slower economic growth and higher inflation.
“The revision lower in the dot plot, from 25bp to 50bp for 2025, is still more hawkish than market pricing (65bp) and the Fed’s greater uncertainty on unemployment also came with warning signals on inflation, effectively arguing against imminent dovish turns,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
Traders are pricing in 65 basis points of easing this year from the Fed, about two rate reductions of 25 bps each, with a cut in July fully priced in, LSEG data showed.
Powell’s comments and the Fed statement underscored the challenge faced by policymakers as they navigate President Donald Trump’s plans to levy duties on imports from U.S. trading partners and the impact on the economy.
There is more U.S. economic data to digest Thursday, including weekly jobless claims and the March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
“There are a few important data risk events for the dollar in the coming weeks, where the relatively unchanged Fed pricing will be tested. Barring an immediate deterioration in jobs or core PCE, we still think the start of universal US tariffs on 2 April can bring about fresh support for the greenback,” ING added.
Sterling down ahead of BOE meeting
In Europe, GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.2956, after the release of economic data showing stability in the U.K. jobs market, ahead of the latest Bank of England policy-setting meeting.
Britain’s unemployment rate held at 4.4% in January, while pay growth across the economy, excluding bonuses, stood at 5.9%, unchanged from the fourth quarter.
In a further sign of a stabilising jobs markets, the number of job vacancies in the December-to-February period stood at 816,000, the first increase when comparing a three-month period with the previous one since April-to-June 2022.
This relative stability could provide the Bank of England with extra time to pursue a relatively cautious stance towards more interest rate cuts, especially after inflation edged higher last month.
The U.K. central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged later Thursday.
EUR/USD traded 0.4% lower at 1.0854, with the single currency weakening after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that the eurozone economy would take a large hit from a full-scale trade war with the United States and inflation could surge.
The U.S. has already imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium products from around the world and said it would review its trade relationship with the European Union. This has already prompted retaliatory measures from the EU, which are set to come into effect in April.
USD/CHF rose 0.4% to 0.8822, with the Swiss franc slipping after the Swiss National Bank cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%, its fifth successive cut since it started lowering borrowing costs in March 2024.
Yuan slips slightly
In Asia, USD/JPY traded largely unchanged at 148.74, with Japan on holiday, while USD/CNY traded 0.2% higher to 7.2453, rising slightly after the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged at record lows.