Investing.com -- Bets on the Federal Reserve squeezing out three rate cuts this year have been on the up, and up, but ahead of the central bank’s rate decision next week, economists at Stifel believe the Fed’s best course of action is no action at a time of elevated policy and economic uncertainty.
"Rather than double down with additional rate reductions...the Committee is presumably better suited to maintain its ’wait and see’ approach, at least for now," Stifel economists said in a note.
The on-and-off tariff regime that is currently dominating headlines and wreaking havoc on markets has sparked a growth scare, fueling bets of further rate cuts sooner than later.
The Fed, however, is stuck between a rock and hard a place, struggling to balance a need to provide support to a potentially cooling labor market while reining in price pressures. This is likely to encourage the central bank to hold on any further rate accommodation, the economists said.
While the market remains optimistic the Committee will be willing and able to eventually eek out at least three additional rate cuts by year-end, policy is likely to remain steady in the near term, with the federal funds target range firmly fixed at 4.25-4.50%.
The Fed would likely to maintain optionality, preferring to strike a balanced tone and not give much away in terms of policy direction, but the summary of projections, which will accompany the rate decision, is likely to force the Fed into divulging fresh clues on further rate cuts.
"The accompanying communication at next week’s policy meeting could tip the Committee’s hand in terms of primary concerns, a policy lean, and/or expected timeline for any future adjustments in rates," Stifel said.