Investing.com-- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected on Wednesday, and warned that underlying inflation was likely to increase in the coming months- a scenario that could herald more rate hikes.
The BOJ held its benchmark overnight rate at 0.5% in a unanimous decision, after raising rates by 25 basis points in January.
Wednesday’s hold was widely expected, given that the BOJ signaled that it would seek more clarity on Japan’s economy- particularly wages and inflation- before raising interest rates further.
Headline consumer price index inflation rose to 4% in January, while underlying inflation also rose and remained above the BOJ’s 2% annual target.
The central bank said it expects underlying CPI to increase gradually in the coming months.
“With a growing sense of labor shortage, the output gap will improve and medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify,” the BOJ said in a statement.
The central bank flagged resilience in Japan’s economy, and said that it expects the economy to keep growing at a pace “above its potential growth rate.”
Focus is now on a press conference by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, at 03:30 PM JST (06:30 GMT), for more insight into the BOJ.
Analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates by as soon as May, given that it will by then have enough clarity on the Japanese economy to make a decision. Several policymakers, including Ueda, have flagged the potential for more rate hikes this year, amid signs of sticky inflation and economic resilience.
Japanese government bond yields had soared on this notion, while the yen recently hit a five-month high. The yen’s USD/JPY pair was unchanged after Wednesday’s decision.
Ongoing springtime wage negotiations between major Japanese employers and labor unions are expected to yield another year of bumper wage hikes after 2024.
Wednesday’s decision marks a year since the BOJ began winding down its ultra-loose policies, with recent signaling from the central bank suggesting that monetary policy will tighten further in 2025. Bumper wage hikes- which then underpinned private spending- were a major motivator of the BOJ’s rate hikes in 2024.
Analysts expect an end-2025 rate of at least 1%.