* Third biggest rice exporter Vietnam to curb sales
* Iraq seeks larger volumes of wheat, stoking food security
concerns
By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Global food security
concerns are mounting with around a fifth of the world's
population already under lockdown to fight the widening
coronavirus pandemic that has infected over 470,000 people
across 200 countries, killing 21,000.
Panic buying of household staples like toilet paper and
cleaning products have occurred in nearly every country hit by
the virus, and empty shelves in supermarkets have been common.
Compounding the anxiety stemming from erratic consumer
buying has been concern that some governments may move to
restrict the flow of food staples to ensure their own
populations have enough while supply chains get disrupted by the
pandemic.
"People are starting to get worried," said Phin Ziebell,
agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.
"If major exporters start keeping grains at home, it will
have the buyers really worried. It is panicking and not
rational, as fundamentally the world is well supplied with
food."
Vietnam, the third largest rice exporter, and Kazakhstan,
the number nine wheat exporter, have already made moves to
restrict sales of those staples amid concerns over domestic
availability. India, the top global rice exporter, has just entered a
three-week lockdown that has brought several logistics channels
to a halt. Elsewhere, Russia's vegetable oil union has called for a
restriction in sunflower seed exports, and palm oil output has
slowed in the number two producer Malaysia.
On the importer side, Iraq announced it needs 1 million
tonnes of wheat and 250,000 tonnes of rice after a "crisis
committee" advised building up strategic food stocks.
Together, these moves have raised concerns among agriculture
traders about unnecessary food supply distortions.
NO SHORTAGE
Combined global production of rice and wheat - the most
widely-traded food crops - is projected to be a record 1.26
billion tonnes this year, according United States Department of
Agriculture data.
That output tonnage should easily surpass total combined
consumption of those crops, and should lead to a build in
year-end inventories to a record 469.4 million tonnes, USDA data
shows.
However, those projections assume normal crop flows from
where they're produced to where they're consumed, as well as the
usual availability of substitutes.
Prices for rice are already rising due to expectations of a
further squeeze on exports.
"It is a logistics issue. Vietnam has stopped exports, India
is in a lockdown and Thailand could declare similar measures,"
said a senior Singapore-based trader at one of world's top rice
traders.
Benchmark rice prices in Thailand RI-THBKN5-P1 have
climbed to the highest since August 2013 at $492.5 a tonne.
The market had topped $1,000 a tonne during the food crisis
of 2008, when export restrictions and panic buying buoyed
prices.
"We are unlikely to see a repeat of 2008," the Singapore
rice trader said. "One thing is that the world has enough
supplies, especially in India where inventories are very large."
Global rice stocks are estimated to surpass 180 million
tonnes for the first time this year, up 28% since the 2015-16
season.
But those inventories are not distributed evenly, with over
153 million tonnes in China and India alone.
That means big rice buyers such as the Philippines, the top
importer, and others in Asia and Africa could be vulnerable if
crop movements are curtailed for long.
"Our rice inventory is good for 65 days. We have enough rice
for the next two months," said the Philippines Agriculture
Secretary William Dar.
With additional supply coming from the dry season harvest,
Dar told reporters the Philippines has enough rice for the next
four months.
Most wheat buyers in Asia, led by the world's second largest
importer Indonesia, are covered for supplies until June, traders
said.
"As of now we have not seen any wheat importer rushing to
cover supplies more than the usual needs," said one trader in
Singapore at an international trading company which sells Black
Sea and U.S. wheat in Asia.
Chicago wheat futures Wv1 have climbed almost 10% this
month.
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Rice and wheat exports prices https://reut.rs/2xsYYHq
No shortage: Combined rice & wheat output, exports and stocks
expected to be at or near all-time highs this year https://reut.rs/2UD7qLV
Months of rice stocks in top importers https://reut.rs/2xsfM0U
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