By Karen Lema
MANILA, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Developing Asia is on course to
contract this year, but probably less than previously thought as
China recovers faster than expected, although the prolonged
pandemic remains a risk to the outlook, the Asian Development
Bank (ADB) said on Thursday.
Economic output in developing Asia, a group of 45 nations in
the Asia-Pacific, is seen to shrink 0.4% this year, the ADB said
in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook report, short
of its earlier estimate of a 0.7% decline.
This year's expected decline would be the region's first in
nearly six decades.
For 2021, the region is still forecast to recover and grow
6.8%, the ADB said, as Asian economies gradually recover from
the COVID-19 pandemic that has infected nearly 68 million people
and killed more than 1.5 million.
Developing Asia's subregions are forecast to contract this
year, except for East Asia, which is expected to grow 1.6%,
higher than earlier projected, supported by faster-than-expected
recoveries in China and Taipei.
China, where the coronavirus surfaced in December, is
projected to grow 2.1% this year, faster than the ADB's
September estimate of 1.8%. The ADB kept its 7.7% growth
forecast for the world's second largest economy for 2021.
"A prolonged pandemic remains the primary risk, but recent
developments on the vaccine front are tempering this," said ADB
Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada.
The ADB still expects India's economy to bounce back with
growth of 8.0% next year, emerging from a projected contraction
of 8.0% this year, less than the 9.0% decline previously
forecast.
Southeast Asia remains under pressure, as virus outbreaks
and restrictions continue in countries such as Indonesia,
Malaysia, and the Philippines, prompting the ADB to downgrade
its 2020 and 2021 growth forecasts for the sub-region.
Southeast Asia faces a bleaker outlook with this year's
economic output seen to suffer a deeper slump of 4.4%, before
growing 5.2% next year, down from an earlier forecast for 5.5%
growth.
Regional inflation this year is expected to ease marginally
to 2.8% from a prior estimate of 2.9% and slow further to 1.9%
in 2021.
GDP GROWTH
2019 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
JUNE SEPT DEC JUNE SEPT DEC
Central 4.9 -0.5 -2.1 -2.1 4.2 3.9 3.8
Asia
East Asia 5.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 6.8 7.0 7.0
China 6.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 7.4 7.7 7.7
South Asia 4.3 -3.0 -6.8 -6.1 4.9 7.1 7.2
India 4.2 -4.0 -9.0 -8.0 5.0 8.0 8.0
SEast Asia 4.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.4 5.2 5.5 5.2
Indonesia 5.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.2 5.3 5.3 4.5
Malaysia 4.3 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 6.5 6.5 7.0
Myanmar 6.8 1.8 1.8 n/a 6.0 6.0 n/a
Philippines 6.0 -3.8 -7.3 -8.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Singapore 0.7 -6.0 -6.2 -6.2 3.2 4.5 5.1
Thailand 2.4 -6.5 -8.0 -7.8 3.5 4.5 4.0
Vietnam 7.0 4.1 1.8 2.3 6.8 6.3 6.1
The Pacific 3.7 -4.3 -6.1 -6.1 1.6 1.3 1.3
Developing 5.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 6.2 6.8 6.8
Asia
INFLATION
2019 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
JUNE SEPT DEC JUNE SEPT DEC
Central 7.5 8.0 8.3 7.8 6.6 6.6 6.5
Asia
East Asia 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.2
China 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.2
South Asia 5.0 4.0 5.2 6.2 4.5 4.5 4.5
India 4.8 3.0 4.5 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
SEast Asia 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.3 2.2
Indonesia 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.4
Malaysia 0.7 -1.5 -1.5 -1.1 2.5 2.0 2.0
Myanmar 8.6 6.0 6.0 n/a 6.0 6.0 n/a
Philippines 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6
Singapore 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.0 1.0
Thailand 0.7 -1.3 -1.6 -1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9
Vietnam 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
The Pacific 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.3 3.8 3.1 3.0
Developing 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.3 1.9
Asia