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McDonald’s stock retains Neutral rating as Citi highlights lower risk for 2025 unit growth adjustments

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 10/02/2024, 06:48 PM
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On Wednesday, Citi updated its outlook on McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD), raising the price target to $317 from the previous $301 while keeping a Neutral rating on the stock. The revision reflects the anticipation of the fast-food giant's strong third-quarter performance in the United States compared to its competitors.

The firm expects McDonald's to outperform other fast-food players in the U.S. in same-store sales (SSS) for the third quarter. The company is also anticipated to unveil a series of innovations and added value offerings, which could further strengthen its market position. Citi believes that McDonald's is less likely to experience a downward shift in unit growth expectations for 2025 compared to other global fast-food brands.

The adjusted valuation takes into account a more cautious view of consumer spending, which is currently below long-term averages when compared to the S&P 500 index. Additionally, the potential for falling interest rates is seen as a factor that could favorably influence investor approaches to yields in consumer staples-like names, including McDonald's.

Citi's commentary underscores the belief that these factors, combined with McDonald's strategic initiatives, position the company for relative outperformance as the third-quarter earnings season unfolds. The firm's analysis suggests that McDonald's could benefit from the current economic environment and its own corporate strategies in the near term.

In other recent news, McDonald's Corporation has seen a series of developments. Analyst firm BTIG maintained a Neutral rating on McDonald's stock, noting an improving sales trend that could see positive comparable sales for the third quarter. The firm attributes this to successful promotional campaigns, although it remains cautious about the recovery extending beyond the U.S. market.

Simultaneously, Baird raised its price target for McDonald's to $320, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's third-quarter performance, particularly in the U.S. Meanwhile, Loop Capital maintained a Buy rating, citing the company's decision to extend its $5 Meal Deal and robust sales growth.

In addition, TD Cowen held steady with a Hold rating on McDonald's shares, expressing anticipation about the potential U.S. launch of the new Big Arch burger. Citi also raised McDonald's stock price target to $301, maintaining a Neutral rating, despite potential macroeconomic risks in international markets.

However, BofA Securities reduced McDonald's price target from $288.00 to $278.00, maintaining a Neutral rating due to reported negative same-store sales growth across all operating segments in the United States.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement Citi's positive outlook on McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD), recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context for investors. As of the latest available information, McDonald's boasts a substantial market capitalization of $217.34 billion, underscoring its position as a major player in the fast-food industry.

The company's financial health appears robust, with a revenue of $25.76 billion over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, and an impressive operating income margin of 45.67% for the same period. This aligns with Citi's expectation of strong performance in the upcoming third-quarter results.

InvestingPro Tips highlight McDonald's commitment to shareholder value, noting that the company "has raised its dividend for 49 consecutive years." This consistent dividend growth, coupled with a current dividend yield of 2.34%, may appeal to income-focused investors, especially in light of Citi's mention of potential falling interest rates influencing yield-seeking behavior.

Moreover, McDonald's stock has shown strong momentum, with a 22.98% price total return over the past three months. This performance supports Citi's view of McDonald's potential outperformance relative to its peers.

For investors seeking a deeper dive into McDonald's financial metrics and future prospects, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips, providing a comprehensive analysis to inform investment decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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