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FOREX-Swiss franc extends fall as markets eye U.S.-China trade deal

Published 10/28/2019, 08:19 PM
Updated 10/28/2019, 08:24 PM
FOREX-Swiss franc extends fall as markets eye U.S.-China trade deal

* Dollar flat ahead of Fed meeting on Wednesday
* Pound unchanged by Brexit extension to Jan 31. 2020
* Swiss franc weakens, Australian and Canadian dollars rally
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates prices, adds Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Tusk)
By Elizabeth Howcroft
Oct 28 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc weakened broadly against
its rivals on Monday, extending its week-long losing streak,
while the Australian and Canadian dollars gained as hopes of a
Sino-American trade deal encouraged a move away from perceived
safe-haven assets.
In a further sign of improving risk appetite, the Canadian
dollar, a barometer of sentiment towards global trade,
strengthened to a three-month high versus the greenback
CAD=D3 .
"Positive trade headlines continue to support our view that
trade tensions are easing," said Win Thin, global head of FX
strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
"We believe there is a high probability of some trade deal
being signed next month, including lowering of existing
tariffs."
The franc's weakness, though broad-based, was most
pronounced against the trade-oriented currencies such as the
Australian dollar, against which it fell 0.3% to a near
five-month high.

FRAGILE DOLLAR
The greenback was on the back foot on Monday after notching
up a 0.5% rise last week news on Saturday that the U.S. and
China are "close to finalizing" some parts of a trade agreement.
It was down 0.1% on Monday at 97.76.
In another sign of waning dollar bullishness, speculators
cut their long-held long dollar positions against a broad basket
of its rivals including some emerging market currencies to
$15.31 billion as of Oct. 22, versus $20.79 billion the previous
week, according to calculations by Reuters and the U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This is the smallest long position since Sept. 17.


Investors are focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on
Wednesday, when policymakers are expected to cut interest rates
- a move which is already priced in though Fed watchers will be
waiting for clues on the future policy outlook.
"There's still an awful lot of discrepancy and uncertainty
in the markets as to what the Fed will do next year," said Jane
Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, adding that "the market
will be looking for clues as to which way that might go".
MUFG currency analyst Lee Hardman expects October's rate cut
to be the last one for 2019.
The euro was broadly firmer, up 0.1% against the dollar
EUR=EBS and 0.2% against the yen EURJPY=EBS , while the pound
was unchanged after European Council President Donald Tusk's
announcement that EU leaders agreed to accept the UK's request
for a Brexit extension until Jan. 31 2020 GBP=D3 . "The outlook for the euro has improved along with
expectations for a trade deal and a Brexit deal," Foley said,
noting that a Brexit deal would be not only good for both the UK
and eurozone economy.
In a busy week for central banks, investors will also watch
the Bank of Japan's policy decision on Thursday, which is
expected to be a close call on whether to unleash more stimulus
or hold fire for now

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USd long positions https://tmsnrt.rs/2NgAIfG
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