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UPDATE 2-Philippines economy shrinks by more than expected in Q3, but govt says "worst is over"

Published 11/10/2020, 10:43 AM
Updated 11/10/2020, 01:20 PM
© Reuters.

* Q3 GDP shrinks 11.5% yr/yr, grows 8% qtr/qtr
* Government says worst is over for domestic economy
* Philippine economy snapshot: http://tmsnrt.rs/2nZqDWx

(Adds comments)
By Neil Jerome Morales and Enrico Dela Cruz
MANILA, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The Philippine economy shrank by
more than expected in the third quarter from a year ago as the
COVID-19 pandemic continued to batter the Southeast Asian
country but a loosening of coronavirus curbs helped ease the
pain.
Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 11.5% PHGDP=ECI , the
statistics agency said on Tuesday, after a 16.9% slump in the
second quarter when the economy entered its first recession in
nearly 30 years. Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast a
9.8% year-on-year contraction.
GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 8% quarter-on-quarter, after
a 14.9% contraction in April-June.
The government has gradually lifted coronavirus curbs since
May after imposing one of the strictest lockdowns globally this
year. But analysts worry about the Philippines' outlook as it
struggles to contain the virus at home, while a resurgence of
cases abroad threatens the global economic recovery.
"The economic team is optimistic that the worst is over for
the country," said Acting Economic Planning Secretary Karl Chua,
projecting a "strong bounce-back" in 2021.
The data showed household spending and investment continued
to suffer while government spending slowed. Household spending
fell 9.3% in the third quarter from the year before and
investment slumped 37.1% over the same period.
"Improvements are likely to be harder to come by in the
quarters ahead," said Alex Holmes, Asia economist at Capital
Economics. "With the virus still not under control, a further
scaling back of containment measures will take longer."
HSBC economist Noelan Arbis expected the central bank to
keep rates steady for the rest of 2020, but ING senior economist
Nicholas Mapa said the data could prompt a knee-jerk move.
The central bank cut interest rates PHCBIR=ECI by a total
of 175 basis points this year while the government has launched
165.5 billion pesos ($3.4 billion) worth of stimulus measures.
"With fiscal authorities pulling back on spending at a time
we need it the most, monetary authorities may be compelled to
trim rates but at this point, it may be the less effective
response," ING's Mapa said.
Government spending rose 5.8% in the third quarter from a
year ago, compared with a 21.8% surge in the second quarter.
The Philippines has the second-highest number of coronavirus
cases and COVID-19 deaths in Southeast Asia.

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