Goldman Sachs keeps neutral on American Airlines shares, cites earnings outlook

EditorNatashya Angelica
Published 12/06/2024, 12:00 AM
Goldman Sachs keeps neutral on American Airlines shares, cites earnings outlook

On Thursday, Goldman Sachs maintained its Neutral rating on shares of American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) with a steady price target of $15.00. The airline, currently trading near its 52-week high at $16.38, has updated investors with a more optimistic earnings per share (EPS) forecast for December, now expecting $0.55 to $0.75, an increase from the previous estimate of $0.25 to $0.50.

According to InvestingPro data, eight analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period. This revision is attributed to a stronger than anticipated December quarter revenue per available seat mile (RASM), which is estimated to be flat to up 1% year-over-year, compared to the previous forecast of a 1% to 3% decline.

The airline's cost per available seat mile (CASM) excluding fuel is also expected to reach the higher end of its former projection, with an anticipated year-over-year increase of 5% to 6%, up from the 4% to 6% range. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its own December quarter EPS estimate for American Airlines to $0.65 from the earlier $0.35, in response to the airline's updated guidance.

Despite the improved earnings outlook, Goldman Sachs has not altered its 12-month price target for American Airlines. Based on InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis, the stock appears slightly overvalued at current levels.

Moreover, American Airlines announced a significant new 10-year co-brand credit card partnership with Citi that will commence in 2026. The agreement is expected to boost the airline's annual cash compensation from its co-brand credit card and other partnerships by 10%.

According to American Airlines, the last twelve months have seen remuneration of $5.6 billion, and as this figure nears $10 billion, it could potentially contribute an additional $1.5 billion in pretax income compared to the projected results for 2024. The company's current revenue stands at $53.6 billion, with a gross profit margin of 24%.

In other recent news, American Airlines and Citi have extended their co-branded credit card partnership for another decade. Citi will become the sole issuer of the AAdvantage® co-branded card portfolio in the United States starting in 2026.

Analysts from Seaport Global Securities upgraded American Airlines from Neutral to Buy, reflecting confidence in the company's revenue potential and an improved risk/reward scenario.

In other updates, the US Transportation Department is considering a proposal to mandate airlines to compensate passengers with at least $200 if they are stranded due to issues within the airline's control. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported its busiest day in history, screening over 3.087 million individuals at airports across the United States.

UBS assumed coverage on American Airlines with a Neutral rating, projecting modest margin improvements and limited upside potential for the airline's shares. These developments showcase the airline's efforts to enhance customer loyalty, manage revenue potential, and navigate regulatory changes.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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