Market Overview

There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press...

Most of the major asset classes retreated in April. The overall losses mark the worst month for global markets so far in 2024, based on a set of ETFs.The upside outliers last month were limited to...

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on November 5, 2010, Ben Bernanke did a victory lap, praising the Fed’s efforts in stemming the financial crisis. In the article, he discusses how QE and...

The S&P 500 was down about 1.6% heading into the FOMC meeting and Quarterly Refunding Announcement today. The VIX 1-Day was up 8.3 points to 18.10, which suggests much of the decline yesterday...

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an...

In case you missed it, a $5 trillion tax hike looms over American households and businesses in President Joe Biden’s latest budget proposal, which would include a 25% annual minimum tax on...

This will be one of the busier weeks of the year with earnings, the Fed, lots of data, and a Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement. There are many differing views on the QRA, and there is a good...

In Q1 2024, the US crossed the historic milestone of paying over $1 trillion on interest payments. As a consequence of an unprecedented $5 trillion money supply boost since 2020, the US experienced an...

Yesterday’s first-quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. In reaction, stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose....

The latest retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year. To wit: “It has been two years since...

GDP and PCE inflation data disappointed yesterday. This data raises the question: will it be possible to beat inflation without triggering a recession? Meanwhile, the US dollar has corrected, with...

US 10-Year moved sharply higher on surprise GDP report. What's next? Original Post

The airline industry is gearing up for what could be a record-breaking summer travel season, if forecasts turn out to be correct. Despite challenges such as the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX 9 grounding...