Market Overview

During the last week of December, I polled my Twitter followers for their outlook on the markets and the economy for 2024. The results were quite interesting, but before we look forward, we must look...

It was one of those days; as soon as I woke up, I knew it could be a long day because the VIX was up probably more than it should have been for flat futures.If it feels like Deja Vu, it is probably...

The runup in yields for most of the major asset classes has peaked, based on the trailing 1-year payout rates for a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Jan. 5, 2024).That’s hardly...

This week will be another in-focus week, with the CPI and PPI reports coming toward the week’s end.Additionally, 3 Treasury auctions will be front and center as well. This will follow a fairly...

Treasury yields surged on Friday after the NFP report for December exceeded expectations, raising questions about the Fed's plans for a dovish pivot. The December non-farm payroll (NFP) report...

Wall Street’s Q4 earnings season kicks off next week and is expected to be the next major test for the stock market. Analysts expect annualized profit growth of +2.4% and an increase of +3.1% in...

The S&P 500 dropped by around 35 bps on the day, with most of the decline coming in the final minutes. Yesterday, there was a large sell imbalance that was $4.1 billion, which helped to create...

Uncertainty is as thick as ever for diving into what awaits in the year ahead, but there’s still a growing consensus building that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest...

The year 2023 was a bullish one for stock markets around the world. At the same time, some asset classes had a year to forget. In this piece, I will share my 4 predictions for the financial markets...

Let me get straight to the point: our models show inflation is on its way to undershoot (!) Central Banks targets in 2024. Inflation is often a monetary phenomenon: print real-economy money too...

The first week of 2024 will be a big one, with a lot of data that will either justify the market rally and expectations for rate cuts or not.Data that comes in too hot will kill the idea of rate cuts...

In fact, with patience it could turn out to be like shooting contrary fish in a barrel. The stock market rally – which NFTRH had anticipated a year ago on a larger basis and since October of...

"You can't fight the Fed" is a famous refrain repeated by most market participants throughout the years. Unfortunately, it is just not true. The truer statement is that "you can't fight the market."...

The outlook for the US economy is on track to close 2023 with a relatively upbeat outlook for the fourth quarter, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.The official Q4 GDP...